Africa-Press – Uganda. Busia District, once a dependable stronghold for Uganda’s ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), could be on the brink of a major political shift as the 2026 general elections approach.
In 2021, Busia made headlines when opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine and president of the National Unity Platform (NUP), narrowly defeated President Yoweri Museveni in the presidential race.
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Kyagulanyi polled 45,166 votes (47.0%), edging out Museveni who received 44,679 votes (46.0%).
The result marked a significant departure from the 2016 elections, when Museveni comfortably won the district with 51.28% of the vote.
The surprising outcome left observers asking: was this simply a protest vote over unmet development promises, or the beginning of a deeper political realignment?
According to the NRM’s Busia district leadership, the party’s declining support is largely due to past failures in service delivery.
“Service delivery is a key factor in attracting people. They need good infrastructure like roads, healthcare, and schools. Truthfully, we didn’t perform well in line with our manifesto then,” admitted Wilberforce Lwagula, the NRM Administrator in Busia.
But NUP leaders argue that the discontent runs far deeper.
“The reasons why people voted for NUP still stand—issues like overstaying in power, dictatorship, and mismanagement of public institutions that now serve a few,” said Maria Nnatabi Ledochowska, NUP Secretary for the Eastern Region. “Ugandans are frustrated. They pay heavy taxes but receive little in return.”
Nnatabi believes the opposition is gaining even more ground ahead of 2026, pointing to increased mobilization and growing public anger.
“We are expanding our support using structures we didn’t have in 2021. Every day, people get tortured by Museveni’s regime—many join our side,” she said.
Still, the NRM remains hopeful. Lwagula says the party has learned from its mistakes and is working to fulfill previous promises.
“People care about service delivery, and we have focused on that. We now have several seed schools, water projects, and roads like the Busia–Tororo road rehabilitated. The community appreciates these efforts,” he said.
As the road to 2026 narrows, both the NRM and NUP are intensifying grassroots mobilization in Busia, each hoping to tip the balance.
Whether Busia remains with the opposition or swings back to the ruling party could signal broader national trends ahead of the polls.
For now, the district remains in political flux—an early bellwether for Uganda’s next chapter.
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