Africa-Press – Uganda. The political horizon in Uganda is shifting, and the fate of the so-called “NRM Rebel MPs” hangs in the balance. Muhammad Nsereko, the outspoken Kampala Central MP, has set his sights on the presidency, signaling that he will not return to the 12th Parliament.
Theodore Ssekikubo lost the Lwemiyaga NRM flag, while Barnabas Tinkasimire fell in Buyaga West. Only Wilfred Niwagaba appears likely to reclaim a parliamentary seat in 2026, leaving the once formidable quartet in uncertain waters.
These MPs—Ssekikubo, Tinkasimire, Nsereko, and Niwagaba—have become emblematic of principled defiance within the ruling National Resistance Movement.
Branded “rebels” for challenging party orthodoxy, they have spent over a decade pushing back against what they viewed as unconstitutional political manoeuvres and internal excesses.
Their story is not merely one of ambition or rivalry; it is a narrative of resistance, principle, and the enduring tension between loyalty to party and fidelity to the Constitution.
Their dissent was never limited to disagreements over policy. They opposed the controversial bid to hand over Mabira Forest to sugarcane interests, resisted the removal of presidential age limits, and questioned the ethical compass of a party increasingly seen as prioritizing power consolidation over public service.
Ssekikubo and Tinkasimire led the charge, while Nsereko and Niwagaba amplified the message through Parliament and public discourse.
“We are not against the President, but we are against amending the Constitution to suit one person,” Nsereko asserted, a declaration that resonated with a citizenry wary of unchecked authority.
The cost of defiance was immediate. In April 2013, the NRM Central Executive Committee expelled the four MPs, accusing them of undermining party discipline and opposing key government policies.
The decision sent ripples through Ugandan politics, with some party loyalists calling for the rebels’ seats to be vacated. Yet the MPs refused to cede their positions quietly.
They challenged their expulsion in court, and in November 2015, the Supreme Court ruled in their favour, affirming that parliamentary mandates cannot be nullified solely by party expulsion.
This victory reinforced the principle of parliamentary independence, though it did little to repair the fragile relationship between the rebels and the party hierarchy.
In the years that followed, these MPs carved distinct paths of influence. Nsereko’s vocal opposition to lifting presidential age limits positioned him as a champion of constitutionalism and democratic safeguards.
Tinkasimire, known for his fiery rhetoric, castigated the NRM for straying from its founding ideals, arguing that power had eclipsed purpose.
Niwagaba, meanwhile, maintained an “outside-looking-in” stance, declining overtures from party leaders to rejoin the fold and choosing instead to represent his constituents without partisan constraints.
Yet the 2025 NRM primaries have underscored the vulnerability of even the most seasoned rebels. Ssekikubo, after more than two decades representing Lwemiyaga County, was defeated by Brigadier General Emmanuel Rwashande, a party-endorsed former ally and relative.
Tinkasimire, a dominant figure in Buyaga West, lost to Dennis Namara.
Ssekikubo contested the results through the NRM tribunal but failed to overturn them, while Tinkasimire chose a different path, opting not to challenge the outcome and instead expressing confidence in his ability to succeed as an independent candidate.
The practical challenges for these MPs are formidable. Campaigning as independents in constituencies where the NRM’s machinery dominates presents significant hurdles.
Party structures provide logistical support, funding, and networks that independents must now generate independently. Coupled with the rise of younger, party-aligned candidates, the electoral terrain has become unpredictable and perilous.
The tide at sea, economically and politically, will be rough for these long-time political navigators.
Nsereko, however, has embraced a broader trajectory. His presidential bid under the Ecological Party of Uganda signals a willingness to transcend traditional party politics and appeal to a national constituency.
For Niwagaba, independence remains both principle and strategy, a quiet defiance that eschews party allegiance while maintaining an acute awareness of NRM’s political maneuvers.
Beyond individual fortunes, the legacy of the NRM Rebel MPs speaks to the challenges of dominant-party politics. Their careers illuminate the tension between dissent and loyalty, between principle and pragmatism.
By challenging the party line, they have disrupted the carefully curated image of NRM unity, forcing conversations on governance, ethics, and constitutionalism into the public domain.
They have reminded Uganda that even in a dominant-party system, individual courage can provoke debate and influence the political imagination.
The coming elections, however, may redefine their relevance. The primaries illustrate the stark reality: popularity and principle do not guarantee electoral success when the institutional weight of the party is arrayed against independent candidates.
While symbolic capital, public recognition, and legal victories provide moral authority, they cannot fully compensate for the material advantages that come with party machinery.
Yet even if the NRM Rebel MPs are edged out of parliamentary representation, their influence may persist in subtler forms. They have established themselves as voices for constitutionalism, accountability, and public service.
In a political culture where conformity is often rewarded and dissent punished, their stance serves as a benchmark for future legislators and a reminder that courage in politics is not always measured by victory at the ballot box.
As the 2026 elections approach, the fate of these rebels will be closely watched. Nsereko’s presidential bid, Ssekikubo and Tinkasimire’s potential independent runs, and Niwagaba’s continued defiance offer distinct narratives, each reflecting a different approach to politics outside the traditional party framework.
Whether these paths culminate in triumph, setback, or symbolic legacy, the questions they have raised about party loyalty, democratic safeguards, and political ethics will continue to echo in Uganda’s national discourse.
Ultimately, the end of the NRM Rebel MPs as parliamentary actors may be near, but the end of their impact is far from assured. Their insistence on principle, constitutionalism, and representation has left an indelible mark on Uganda’s political landscape.
In a system often criticized for intolerance of dissent, their careers exemplify the complex interplay between courage, conviction, and survival in politics. Even as the next chapter unfolds, their story remains a compelling testament to the enduring power of political principle in shaping national debate.
Source: Nilepost News
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