Africa-Press – Angola. The Angolan economy will grow by around 1.1% this year, surpassing the growth in 2023 which was 0.9%, according to an assessment by the South African bank Standard Bank.
Specializing in evaluating macroeconomic indicators from different countries around the world, the South African bank considers that the world economy will continue to grow, a fact that benefits Angola, as it is subject to the volatility of oil prices on the international market.
The perspective was presented on Thursday, in Luanda, by Standard Bank’s chief economist for Angola, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Fáusio Mussá, during the first edition of the Economic Briefing/2024 on the macroeconomic situation of Angola.
The expert said that the outlook for growth in the world economy is encouraging, as Angola needs the price of oil to remain at current levels.
Despite this projection, the economist estimates that Angola could grow at a rate below the objectives of the National Development Plan (PDN 2023-2027), stating that with low investment, the country faces a high risk of weak economic growth, below 3%. , in 2027, as defined in the PDN.
“It seems difficult for Angola to mobilize the necessary investments to increase oil production. Our scenario foresees stability in oil production, but we are unable to predict a situation in which there is an increase in production”, she reinforced.
From this perspective, Fáusio Mussá understands that if oil production remains stable, it will be “very good” for Angola, despite the need for investment outside the oil sector.
According to the expert, Angola is experiencing a major slowdown in foreign direct investment, as the reforms that have been developed have helped to make the regulatory framework more interesting for the oil sector.
He also added that, in 2024, some progress in fiscal consolidation is expected, considering a conservative assumption for the price of oil and progress in fuel subsidy reform.
As for the Angolan money market, it envisaged an “insufficiently tight” monetary policy, with the high growth of the monetary supply in national currency and negative real interest rates.
“Today we have a much lower foreign currency supply than in 2023 and 2022. For this year, the forecast is for a monthly supply of 600 million dollars, while last year we had 821 million dollars, which represented a drop of 37% compared to 2022”, he clarified.
In turn, the executive director of Standard Bank Angola, Luís Teles, highlighted positive signs for the Angolan economy, compared to the year 2023, which was very difficult.
“There are positive signs on the horizon, such as the drop in interest rates in international markets, China’s opening to make financing conditions more flexible, as well as support for priority projects for the country”, he highlighted.
The first edition of the Economic Briefing 2024 featured two panels composed of themes such as “Perspective on the geopolitical and macro situation in Angola” and “Capital Markets”, with the participation of several experts, academics and businesspeople.
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