Africa-Press – Cape verde. The financial rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts growth of 4% in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, with inflation in the region slowing to 4.9%, and public debt remaining at 67%.”We expect average growth in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 to remain at around 4%, which is in line with the average for the five years to 2019, despite of being lower than the growth trend until 2014, which was stronger”, analysts write in a report on the region’s evolution prospects in 2024, in which they say that the trend in ratings is neutral.
In the document, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, Fitch Ratings points out that despite the average growth being around 4%, “there are substantial divergences a>”, since seven of the 20 countries that are evaluated will grow at levels equal to or greater than 5.5%.
“The main risks are related to financing restrictions, climate events and the possibility of lower-than-expected global growth”, that can influence the expansion of African economies.
Fitch, which issues an opinion on the credit quality of Portuguese-speaking Angola, Cape Verde and Mozambique, foresees an improvement in the region’s average inflation, after the strong rise in 2022, to 7.4%, which is expected to slow down to 6.3 % this year and 4.9% next year.
Despite “significant variations” Among the 20 countries analyzed, Fitch Ratings highlights that Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana and Nigeria are expected to be some of the countries where prices will rise by more than 10% in 2024.
Regarding public debt, one of the main concerns of analysts and international economic institutions, Fitch predicts a stabilization at 67%, anticipating the continuation of budgetary consolidation efforts, in many cases with International Monetary Fund programs, which cover 13 of the 20 countries that have a rating assigned by Fitch.
“The debt-to-GDP ratio, at 67%, remains 10 percentage points higher than it was in 2019, before the pandemic, and is more than double the value below 30% recorded between 2007 and 2013”, reads the report, which states that half of the countries with a Fitch rating have a public debt above 70% of GDP.< /span>
“The average debt-to-income ratio will continue to be above 300%, more than double that recorded in 2013” , which means that taxes collected by the State only cover about a third of the cost of servicing the debt, analysts conclude.
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