Africa-Press – Ghana. = Ghana’s recent macroeconomic turnaround did not occur in isolation. It coincided with a rare alignment of supportive global conditions that enabled domestic reforms to bite more deeply and faster.
Single-digit inflation, a firmer Ghana Cedi, record foreign reserves, and a decisive cut in the policy rate all emerged as the global economy showed unexpected resilience. For Ghana, the result has been a transition from crisis management to momentum building.
The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reports that headline inflation fell to 5.4 per cent in December 2025. On January 28, 2026, the committee cut the policy rate by 250 basis points to 15.50 per cent, citing significant macroeconomic improvement and well-anchored expectations.
This reset reflects disciplined domestic choices under the Mahama administration. It was reinforced by a global environment that reduced the cost of adjustment.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, supported by easier financial conditions, easing tariff pressures, and a surge in technology investment linked to artificial intelligence.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas has asserted that firms have adapted to trade shocks. At the same time, AI-related investment has provided a meaningful offset to global headwinds.
For emerging economies like Ghana, lower global inflation and a softer US dollar through much of 2025 reduced import-price pressures. This made domestic disinflation more durable and policy easing safer.
The World Bank’s commodity outlook reinforces this picture. Energy and many food prices are projected to decline further into 2026, strengthening the external disinflation impulse already cited by the MPC.
The AI Investment Wave and Ghana’s Financial Transmission
The IMF attributes part of global resilience to a surge in AI-related capital expenditure. Spending on data centres, chips, and cloud infrastructure lifted global investment and loosened financial conditions.
This had tangible spillovers in Ghana. Money-market rates fell sharply. The 91-day Treasury bill yield hovered near 11.2 per cent in mid-January 2026, down from over 27 per cent a year earlier.
The MPC also reports that average lending rates fell by about 10 percentage points in 2025. Real private-sector credit growth rebounded to 13.1 per cent.
This rare combination of falling nominal rates and rising real credit allowed policy to shift from stabilisation to real-sector recovery.
Still, risks remain. The IMF warns that the AI cycle is concentrated and vulnerable to correction. A reversal could tighten global financial conditions and test frontier markets that benefited from last year’s risk appetite.
Dollar Weakness and Ghana Cedi Rebound
Currency dynamics played a decisive role. A weaker US dollar through much of 2025 eased pressure across emerging markets.
Against this backdrop, and supported by tight monetary policy, liquidity discipline, and reserve accumulation, the cedi staged a remarkable recovery. The Bank of Ghana reports a 40.7 per cent appreciation against the US dollar in 2025, following a 19.2 per cent depreciation in 2024.
Gross international reserves rose to US$13.8 billion at the end of 2025, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover, up from US$9.1 billion a year earlier. These buffers now anchor confidence, even as global currency conditions remain uncertain.
Global forecasters caution that the dollar’s path in 2026 could be volatile. This underscores the importance of the reserve rebuilding achieved under the current policy framework.
Commodities: A Favourable Mix
Commodity markets also worked in Ghana’s favour. The World Bank projects broad declines in energy and food prices into 2026, easing inflation pressures worldwide.
At the same time, gold prices remained historically elevated, driven by safe-haven demand and central-bank purchases. This combination suited Ghana well as an oil importer and gold exporter.
The MPC reports a provisional current-account surplus of US$9.1 billion in 2025 and a balance-of-payments surplus of US$3.98 billion. Strong gold exports and higher private transfers were key drivers.
These inflows reinforced reserve accumulation and reduced exchange-rate volatility, creating space for measured policy easing.
Cocoa followed a different path. Prices normalised from record highs in 2024, correcting sharply in 2025 while remaining above pre-2023 levels. Ghana responded by raising the 2025/26 producer price by about 12 per cent to protect farmer incomes and curb cross-border smuggling.
Fiscal Repair and Renewed Market Confidence
Fiscal outcomes strengthened markedly. By November 2025, the overall fiscal deficit stood at 0.5 per cent of GDP, well below target. The primary surplus reached 2.8 per cent of GDP.
Public debt fell to 45.5 per cent of GDP, from 63.1 per cent a year earlier. This consolidation reopened domestic financing at a lower cost and restored confidence.
Global conditions helped. International capital-flow data show improved non-resident inflows to emerging markets as financial conditions eased. In today’s market structure, credibility is rewarded quickly.
Ghana’s January 2026 Treasury bill auctions, consistently oversubscribed at falling yields, captured that renewed confidence.
Banking Sector: Recovery with Caution
The banking system has moved from shock absorption to renewed intermediation. The central bank describes the sector as solvent and profitable, with assets expanding on the back of deposits and capital.
Non-performing loans fell to 18.9 per cent in December 2025 from 21.8 per cent a year earlier. While still elevated, regulators are addressing legacy assets and tightening underwriting standards to sustain credit growth.
Global financial stability risks persist, particularly from non-bank intermediaries. Macro-prudential vigilance remains essential.
Ghana in the Regional Context
The IMF’s outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa describes the region as holding steady into 2026, with easing inflation and modest growth gains. Financing constraints and debt-service pressures, however, remain widespread.
Against this backdrop, Ghana stands out. Single-digit inflation, a primary surplus, stronger reserves, and a credible policy pivot place the country among the more stable economies in Africa.
Increasingly, Ghana is being cited as a model economy for Sub-Saharan Africa, demonstrating how disciplined policy, when matched with reform credibility, can restore stability and support growth.
Securing the Gains
The challenge now is durability. First, fiscal credibility must be entrenched through transparent rules and prudent debt management. Second, monetary policy must remain data-driven, with readiness to pause if global conditions tighten.
Third, non-debt foreign exchange inflows should be deepened. Gold has played a critical role, but diversification into services, value-added exports, and diaspora savings instruments is essential.
Fourth, agriculture must remain a priority. Sustained food supply is key to locking in low inflation.
Finally, policymakers must hedge against a potential reversal in the global tech cycle. Vigilance over foreign exchange exposure and maturity mismatches will limit spillovers if risk appetite fades.
Bottom Line
Ghana’s stabilisation is real. It reflects tough domestic choices, credible leadership, and policy discipline under the Mahama administration.
But it has also been amplified by favourable global winds: softer inflation, a weaker dollar, supportive commodity prices, and buoyant global investment.
The task for 2026 is straightforward: let us up our game in turning this solid policy and luck into lasting strength before things shift.
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