Africa-Press – Lesotho. We believe that the indefinite night-time curfew in Lesotho will weigh on the service industry and overall public satisfaction. Following the murder of radio presenter Ralikonelo Joki on May 14, the authorities announced 10pm-4am curfew two days later.
While this is aimed at reducing gun violence in the country, the opposition leader Machesetsa Mofomobe has criticised the measure as harmful to economic activity and employment levels, particularly for taxi drivers, street vendors and those working in night clubs and hotels.
According to the World Bank, Lesotho has the sixth-highest homicide rate in the world (see chart below). On June 21, four suspects were arrested and placed into police custody.
While not our core view, should the curfew persist over Q323 and Q423, this would constrain economic activity and likely increase dissatisfaction among the population.
Meanwhile, weaker growth in neighbouring South Africa (Lesotho’s main export market) will also negatively impact household incomes and in turn, satisfaction.
US allegations that South Africa has supplied weapons to Russia and worsening power outages contributed to significantly weakening the rand, pushing up inflation and dragging on economic growth as household purchasing power is further eroded.
As a result, we revised down our real GDP growth forecast for South Africa in 2023 from 0.9% to 0.2%. Weaker economic activity in South Africa will feed through to Lesotho resulting in lower household incomes – Lesotho is heavily reliant on remittance inflows from its neighbour – and muted demand for Lesotho’s exports.
To reflect this, we have revised down our real GDP growth projection for Lesotho in 2023 from 1.1% to 0.4% and we also expect this to increase public malaise.
Social Stability To Weigh On Lesotho’s Overall STPRI Score
Progress with the Omnibus Bill supports our view that some, if not all, of it will be passed by end-2023.
On June 22, the leaders of the political parties in the National Assembly, including Prime Minister Samuel Ntsokoane Matekane (leader of the Revolution For Prosperity party) and Mathibeli Mokhothu (leader of the opposition Democratic Congress party) signed an agreement, signalling that they remain committed to expediting the passage of the bill.
The government has suggested that the bill should be broken into three parts: one that Parliament could pass with a simple majority, one that would require a two-thirds majority and a final section that would require a referendum.
This should help speed up the passage of at least some of the legislation, such as that which would require a simple majority, by end-2023. When the Omnibus Bill is fully passed, we believe that it will bolster the country’s policy-making process by introducing measures to limit floor crossing in the legislature.
The nature of Lesotho’s coalition politics means that party fractures, the introduction of new parties and floor crossing are all regular occurrences, which slow the policy-making process.
To reflect our view that this bill will be passed in the short term, we maintain our STPRI policy-making process score of 36.7 – although Lesotho’s coalition-style politics will see this remain well below the regional average of 53.9.
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