Africa-Press – Mauritius. Year-on-year inflation rose to 8.3% last April from 11% for the same period last year. Last March, it was 9.1%. On the other hand, headline inflation, used by the Bank of Mauritius to make its projections, still remains strong at 10.9%.
In the process, the consumer price index fell slightly by 0.1% from 131.1 points in March to 131 points last month. This drop in year-on-year inflation may seem paradoxical given the price increases in supermarkets and other large retail outlets.
However, economist Eric Ng notes a trend favoring a decline in price increases after they have taken the lift. Also, he specifies that compared to last year, the country benefits from a statistically high base effect of inflation since last year.
And to wonder if the level of inflation has its limits. Imrith Ramtohul, a financial analyst, points out that the economic effect of the Russian-Ukrainian war caused the prices of certain basic foodstuffs to jump last year, hence the galloping inflation which lasted for several month.
“After reaching its peak, inflation is expected to level off given the evolution of the international economic context.
” The statisticians of Statistics Mauritius also attribute this drop in the CPI to reductions in the main items constituting the household basket.
This includes food/non-alcoholic beverages (-0.1%) and tobacco and alcoholic beverages (-0.3%). However, economists are concerned that headline inflation has remained in double digits for five consecutive months.
However, the Bank of Mauritius has been engaged since January last year in a normalization of its monetary policy by increasing the key rate continuously, an increase of 143% since the beginning of 2022, to fight inflation.
Faced with the upward trend in inflation known as the “headline”, Eric Ng wonders whether the Bank Governor, Harvesh Seegolam’s objective of bringing inflation down to 6% this year and 5% next year will be hit.
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