Africa-Press – Mozambique. The consultancy NKC African Economics on Friday said that support from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to Mozambique would take months and that the number of troops would be smaller than expected.
“Considering the pace at which work has been going on, we expect it to take another few months before there are finally troops on the ground in Cabo Delgado, and we also anticipate that this force will be smaller than what was reportedly recommended by member states,” the analysts wrote.
In a comment on Wednesday’s SADC decision to send regional troops into Cabo Delgado, the African branch of Oxford Economics writes that although the insurgency is costing the state natural gas exploration deals with international oil companies, the country has so far prioritised sovereignty over security.
In the analysis, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, the analysts pointed out that the government of Filipe Nyusi is very reluctant to allow foreign troops access to the region, accepting only aid, training and logistical support for the response to the situation.
NKC African Economics also warns that the details regarding the rapid intervention force in Cabo Delgado will still have to be agreed upon between the member states and recalls that the force itself is still mainly theoretical, as although the mechanisms for its formation were established in 2007, such a force has only been mobilised once, in Lesotho, in 2017.
In this case, the military force was initially made up of 1,200 troops, but this number was eventually reduced to 258, analysts said, comparing that for Mozambique there are unofficially confirmed indications that the proposed number of troops could reach 2,900.
SADC, which met on Wednesday at an extraordinary summit, approved the mandate for a joint standby force to support Mozambique in the fight against terrorism in Cabo Delgado.
The organisation did not give details of the force that will be sent to the country or dates, reiterating only that the mission is to support Mozambican government forces in the fight against insurgency in northern Mozambique
Armed groups have terrorised Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province since 2017, with some attacks claimed by the jihadist group Islamic State, in a wave of violence that has led to more than 2,800 deaths, according to the ACLED conflict registration project, and 732,000 displaced people, according to the United Nations (UN).
The violence has also led oil company TotalEnergies to suspend preparatory work for natural gas exploration in Cabo Delgado, on which the country depends to increase revenues and re-launch the economy.
According to the UN, more than 900,000 people are facing severe food insecurity in Cabo Delgado and host communities are also in urgent need of shelter, protection and other services.
