Africa-Press – South-Africa. In 2022, South Africa spent more than half the year in darkness because of loadshedding. Alongside this energy crisis, the country is being challenged to transform its coal-intensive energy mix into a more sustainable, renewable energy mix, in line with its international commitments.
This transition presents several challenges, one of which is to ensure that the transition is just and equitable for local communities whose livelihoods depend on coal mining.
The national Department of Mineral Resources and Energy says that about 77%of South Africa’s primary energy needs are met with coal.
To better understand the implications of this energy transition, the Energy Economics Unit, a team from the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences at the University of Pretoria (UP) evaluated the planned energy transition and its potential impacts on a national and provincial level.
A point of focus was the coal-intensive Mpumalanga province. Of the 90 000 people who are directly employed by the coal mining industry, around 75% are tied to Mpumalanga.
Coal-intensive consequences
Their findings were “startling, yet not surprising”, the UP team says. “The Mpumalanga economy, specifically its coal industry, is facing a challenging scenario in which the consequences are significant regardless of the path taken.”
The first set of modelling scenarios indicated that a predicted decline in export demand for coal, and potential penalties for non-compliance with international commitments, would have a negative impact on Mpumalanga and national economies if the current coal-intensive energy mix persists.
Conversely, transitioning away from coal would still significantly affect the Mpumalanga coal industry.
“There may be some offsetting benefits from other businesses, particularly in the renewable energy sector, if the region can retain its workforce and create a supportive environment for growth,” the team says.
The need to transition
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2019) envisages that demand for coal as a source of energy will decline, and that by 2030, the energy mix would change materially toward renewables.
Disruption is, therefore, both necessary and unavoidable.
“Our research shows that the successful implementation of a just transition has the potential to deliver both economic growth and environmental sustainability,” the team says.
“However, this requires a carefully managed process that prioritises building trust among policymakers, stakeholders and local communities to navigate short-term challenges and achieve long-term benefits.”
When will it happen?
Predictably, coal miners want to extend their operations for as long as possible, while climate activists want them shut down as soon as possible.
Just energy transition stakeholders need to find middle ground, but as the research highlights, this will take intervention and support from the government.
This work has started, but has been frustratingly slow to implement on the ground, as it is hampered by the electricity crisis and policy uncertainty between different government departments.
More energy, more work
Other than directly addressing the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 (Ensure Access to Affordable, Reliable, Sustainable and Modern Energy for All), a just energy transition is closely linked to SDG 8, Decent Work and Economic Growth. It can create new job and economic opportunities in the clean energy sector.
source:businesstech
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