Africa-Press – Angola. The consultancy Oxford Economics has revised the forecast of oil production in Angola, anticipating that the country will be able to pump 1.18 million barrels a day this year, increasing production for the first time since 2015.
“We expect oil production in Angola to rise to 1.18 million barrels per day in 2022, up from 1.13 million barrels in 2021, but the balance of risks is negatively unbalanced due to the possibility of further problems. technical and supply chain disruptions,” the analysts write.
In a comment on the May figures, sent to investors and to which Lusa had access, analysts from Oxford Economics write that China, which accounted for 70 percent of Angola’s exports last year, will be decisive for the evolution of Angolan oil revenue. , this year.
“The confinements related to the Ómicron variant adversely affected oil exports, which forced Sonangol to sell shipments at a large discount”, point out the analysts, stressing that Russia is also important for the evolution of oil exports. oil in Angola, which are worth about 90 percent of the total.
“Angola faces tough competition from China, which can put even more pressure on Angolan oil prices”, as “Russia is selling cheap oil in a context of an embargo on Russian oil by other countries and, in May, the Russia has replaced Saudi Arabia as the biggest supplier of oil to China,” says Oxford.
Oil production in May dropped slightly in Angola, but in the total of the first five months, the country managed to inject 1.17 million barrels per day, on average, which represents an increase of 1.9 percent compared to the period between January and May 2021, which had a positive impact on Public Finance and the exchange rate.
“The more stable production and the high price of oil led to a flow of ‘petrodollars’ last year, which improved the exchange rate and the quality of Angola’s sovereign credit; the Angolan currency traded at around 433 kwanzas to the dollar in last few days, which represents a strong reversal from the worst period of November 2020, when one dollar was worth 660 kwanzas”, writes the consultant.