writes Kasper Vrolijk
Africa-Press – Eswatini. As climate patterns shift, coffee producers will be forced to adapt or abandon their farms. The COP30 UN climate conference in Brazil was a nerve-wracking affair. Since the successful Paris agreement a decade ago, successive climate conferences have faded from memory, and global temperatures have continued to rise. As diplomatic tensions rose and negotiations dragged on into the night, what was in high demand was effective negotiation, practical steps, and lots of coffee. The fate of this now ubiquitous bean is an excellent illustration of both the environmental and economic threats of climate change.
In 2025, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global coffee production has declined sharply due to climate change. This raised coffee prices by almost 40 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023. Rising temperatures, as well as increasing and erratic rainfall, have damaged coffee production in Ethiopia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil. With almost 80 per cent of coffee being produced by smallholder farmers, the effects of reduced exports and income are felt directly by households.
If climate trends continue, almost 50 per cent of current global coffee production areas could be unproductive by 2050, with estimates close to 90 per cent for Latin America. If areas become unproductive, this would reduce coffee into a luxury item available only to a few. More importantly, this would particularly affect emerging and lower-income country economies, such as Brazil, where COP30 was held, which earn substantial foreign exchange and secure jobs mainly through agricultural commodities.
Ethiopia generated more than 30 per cent of its export earnings and earned nearly £1 billion from coffee in 2023. Its cultivation supports the livelihoods of more than 15 million farmers. Ethiopia might lose more than 50 per cent of its farm land suitable for coffee production due to climate change. This is problematic for employment and income but also alters the nature of – and prospects for – long-term structural transformation. For many emerging economies, agricultural commodities and particularly processing are a gateway to industrialisation, wage increases and job creation. If such production is erratic or lacking, what options remain for economies to grow and develop?
The future of production
Not all is lost. Those farmers who can move to higher elevations or alternative terrains will be able to maintain coffee production. Multinationals such as Starbucks and INGOs are investing in sustainability programmes that help develop new (and more climate-resistant) varieties of coffee.
There are also adaptation programmes, such as conservation efforts, that could help reduce the decline in suitable coffee growing land through reforestation techniques. This will be aided by the upcoming EU deforestation regulation, which aims to reduce the rate of deforestation through implementing due diligence procedures. However, these changes require time, and the production declines and price inclines are trends that have already started.
This is reflective of broader trends. Climate change will have irreversible effects on the global trade system. One effect is on prices. Coffee may not be deemed an immediate basic need (even if many disagree about this at 7 am), but the price hikes on more common staples, such as corn or grain, will inflate the cost of living, which may perpetuate social and political unrest. This was well-documented in wheat and sunflower prices, which tripled and quadruped, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some of this might be temporary price volatility, but continued inflation in commodity prices is not inconceivable.
The second, somewhat slower, effect is the redistribution of available resources for production and how this affects trade patterns. The majority of agricultural produce is grown in emerging economies, and the export baskets of such economies may shift to less climate-dependent output, such as services, to help safeguard their development. Meanwhile, countries may find that agricultural production shifts north, sometimes over state lines. In some cases, this might result in peculiarities such as sparkling wine being produced in southern England, but in other instances it will have devastating impacts on states currently dependant on a few cash crops.
There are opportunities for economies, particularly those in tropical regions, to monetise changing climate patterns. Initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which was launched at COP30, will reward countries for maintaining forests (instead of rewarding emission reductions). This could generate substantial income. Another option is leveraging carbon markets to generate funding for development. While these initiatives will not substitute the necessary industrialisation process in which skill and production upgrading are key, they provide innovative means to conserve nature, and at the same time, finance climate adaptation and economic transitions in areas where agriculture becomes untenable.
The threat posed by climate change to farmers, and the options for how to adapt, can be seen clearly through the lens of coffee production. Something to dwell on when you sit down for your next cup of joe.
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