What You Need to Know
After three years of a fragile peace agreement, renewed fighting in Tigray, Ethiopia, has raised alarms about a potential humanitarian crisis. Reports indicate a dangerous military escalation, with civilian casualties and fears of a return to widespread conflict. The situation remains precarious as the region grapples with the aftermath of previous violence.
Africa-Press. After three years of a fragile peace agreement that ended one of the most brutal wars of the 21st century, the sounds of explosions and drone strikes are once again filling the skies over the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia.
Recent reports from French newspapers Libération and La Croix reveal a dangerous military escalation in recent days, amid fears of a complete collapse of the Pretoria peace agreement and a return to the region as a battleground for regional grievances.
Between drone strikes targeting “banana shipments,” according to La Croix, and terrified civilians queuing at banks, the two newspapers paint a complex picture of a reality teetering between war and no peace.
The renewed crisis in Tigray can be understood by answering the following questions based on information from both newspapers:
First, what suddenly ignited tensions in the region?
The first spark ignited on January 26, 2026, with clashes in the disputed border area of “Tselimti,” which is rich in gold and agricultural resources. According to La Croix, the central government in Addis Ababa is attempting to impose loyal authorities and change the political demographics in the region ahead of the upcoming legislative elections scheduled for June. This escalation prompted Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle (the regional capital) since January 29, which observers considered a traditional “harbinger of war.”
Second, what is the nature of the recent military operations and their scale of losses?
A correspondent for La Croix in Addis Ababa, Augustin Basile, reported horrific accounts of Ethiopian drones targeting civilian and commercial trucks. In one incident, a drone destroyed a truck carrying “banana fruit” in the “Inticho” area, killing the driver instantly. The newspaper quoted local researchers stating that “the sole purpose of targeting food is to terrorize and starve the population.” In contrast, Libération confirms that Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) have used “jamming devices” against federal drones, making the airspace unsafe for civilian flights.
Third, how do residents describe the humanitarian situation inside Mekelle?
Libération describes, through its correspondent Antoine Galindo, a state of “mass panic.” Residents, who have not yet recovered from the trauma of the previous war (2020-2022), rushed to banks to withdraw their savings, leading to a “severe liquidity shortage and a black market explosion.” Although communications have not yet been cut off, the closure of airspace and the sounds of bombing have revived memories of the suffocating siege that previously claimed hundreds of lives.
Fourth, what is the role of regional powers, specifically Eritrea, in this escalation?
Here, the “game of shifting alliances” comes to the fore. Eritrea, which was an ally of Abiy Ahmed against Tigray in 2020, is now under suspicion, as Libération points to accusations from Addis Ababa that it has formed a “secret alliance” with the Tigrayans.
Analysts believe that Abiy Ahmed seeks to subjugate Tigray to turn the region into a “back base” in a potential war with Eritrea, aiming to reach the Red Sea, which he lost in 1993.
Fifth, has the region reached a “point of no return”?
After a week of renewed exchanges of fire, banks in Tigray are suffering from liquidity shortages, and prices are sharply rising, according to La Croix, which also clarifies that the withdrawal of Tigray Defense Forces from Tselimti, announced on January 31, provides a glimmer of hope for a return to calm, despite ongoing fighting in the south. However, La Croix’s correspondent notes that drone flights ceased during the first and second of February in the city of Shire, the third-largest city in the region.
Based on what both newspapers reported, it can be said that “the point of no return has not yet been crossed.” Despite the fighting, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) announced its readiness for “constructive dialogue” in response to the African Union’s call, and researcher Mahdi Labzaa confirmed in an interview with Libération that the dynamics have changed, as the population in Tigray today is “exhausted and shocked” and lacks the desire to engage in a new comprehensive conflict as was the case in 2020, which may open a narrow door for diplomacy.
The Tigray conflict in Ethiopia has been marked by significant violence and humanitarian crises, particularly from 2020 to 2022. The peace agreement reached in late 2022 was seen as a hopeful step towards stability, but recent escalations have raised concerns about its sustainability. The region’s complex political landscape, influenced by various local and regional actors, continues to shape the conflict’s trajectory.
The involvement of Eritrea and shifting alliances complicate the situation further. Analysts suggest that the Ethiopian government aims to consolidate power in Tigray, potentially leading to renewed hostilities.
