What You Need to Know
A political analyst outlines the critical factors that enabled the military coup in Guinea-Bissau, including the annulment of elections and the exclusion of the historical independence party. The analysis highlights the political environment that facilitated the coup and the implications for the country’s future governance.
Africa. A political analyst has identified several key factors that enabled the military to seize power in Guinea-Bissau. These include the annulment of presidential and parliamentary elections before their results were announced, the dismissal of ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló from parliament, and the exclusion of the historical independence party. Additionally, a significant number of high-ranking officers had previously fled due to accusations of past coup attempts.
According to African affairs expert Ismail Ould Cheikh Sidiya, these factors allowed the coup leaders to succeed in taking power this time. He noted that the cancellation of the “electoral process”—as described by the coup leaders—occurred at a critical moment before the election results were announced, preventing the formation of organized political resistance.
In this context, Ould Cheikh Sidiya explained that the ousted president contributed to creating an environment conducive to the coup by dissolving parliament and excluding the independence party, which fought against Portuguese colonialism and led the country for over 20 years. This exclusion marginalized a key political force with a significant historical legacy and broad public support.
Furthermore, the African affairs expert highlighted the third factor: the presence of many high-ranking officers who had fled and were accused of previous coup attempts. Their precarious situation drove them to participate in the coup as a means to end the political and military tensions in the country and secure their military and political futures.
Historically, Ould Cheikh Sidiya described Guinea-Bissau as a former Portuguese colony that has undergone complex coup experiences, with some declared successful in the morning and failing by evening, while other attempts were thwarted before they could materialize. This reflects the significant political complexities the country faces.
Regionally, he pointed out that Guinea-Bissau is unique as the only former Portuguese colony among nations that were French or English colonies, giving it a distinct cultural, linguistic, and political status. He also noted the ethnic and religious composition of the coup leaders, who are predominantly Christian, which could affect power dynamics in a religiously diverse country.
Cumulative Resignation
Analytically, Ismail Ould Cheikh Sidiya explained that coups in Africa represent a “cumulative resignation” supported by local communities to rid themselves of a failing political class. He emphasized that the military is part of the local community, and the absence of competent politicians makes the military a “savior” for the democratic landscape and the state as a whole.
In this context, the African affairs expert noted that what he termed “political militarization” has attempted to demonstrate this role multiple times across the African continent. He cautioned that generalizations are misleading; not all military coup leaders are failures in Africa, nor are all politicians successful in governing their countries, necessitating case-by-case evaluations free from preconceived judgments.
Ould Cheikh Sidiya concluded by noting that the challenges posed by this coup to African institutions require a deep understanding of the nature of the political crisis in Guinea-Bissau and the local and regional factors driving these recurring military transformations across the continent.
Guinea-Bissau witnessed dramatic developments on Wednesday, as army officers announced the ousting of President Embaló and the seizure of power, just days after the general elections held on November 23. Gunfire was reported near the presidential palace in the capital Bissau, while the president himself confirmed that he was detained by the army chief of staff in what has been described as a complete military coup.
Guinea-Bissau, a former Portuguese colony, has a history marked by political instability and numerous coup attempts. The country has experienced complex political dynamics, with some coups declared successful in the morning and failing by evening. This reflects the significant political challenges that Guinea-Bissau faces today.
Regionally, Guinea-Bissau stands out as the only former Portuguese colony among nations that were French or English colonies, giving it a unique cultural, linguistic, and political context. The ethnic and religious composition of the coup leaders, who are predominantly Christian, may also influence power dynamics in this diverse nation.
