Ata al‑Manan Bakhit, former Sudanese diplomat and Africa researcher
What You Need to Know
This article examines the political evolution of Somaliland and the reasons behind its desire for independence from Somalia. It highlights the strategic significance of the region, especially in light of international security and trade issues, and discusses the implications of potential U.S. recognition under President Trump.
Africa. Somaliland is located in the northern part of the Republic of Somalia and occupies a strategic position overlooking the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el Mandeb Strait. With the growing strategic importance of this region—now a hotbed for international conflict over security, energy, and global trade, particularly with the rising threat of the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden—interest in the region aspiring for independence from Somalia has increased, despite not receiving international recognition from any country thus far.
This article reviews the political development of Somaliland and explains why the region decided to separate from the Somali state, its strategic significance, and why the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is interested in recognizing it.
The End of the Greater Somalia Dream
Western colonial powers divided Somalia into several sections, distributed after the Berlin Conference among France, Britain, and Italy. Italy controlled southern Somalia with its capital in Mogadishu, while Britain took over northern Somalia, with its capital in Hargeisa, and France colonized the Djibouti strip.
Additionally, Ethiopia later controlled the Ogaden region, while Kenya expanded northward into Somali territories. Thus, colonialism fragmented the Somali people into five different entities, all serving the interests of colonial powers.
This division gave rise to a national dream: the necessity of uniting the Somali peoples into one state extending along the Red Sea coast to the Gulf of Aden. The idea of Greater Somalia crystallized during the period of Somali nationalists resisting Western colonial powers and became a central and inspiring idea for the liberation movements of the Somali people. National forces agreed on the need to end colonialism and re-integrate to form Greater Somalia.
By the end of the colonial era in 1960, northern Somalia gained independence as a state with its capital in Hargeisa, recognized by several United Nations member states. Meanwhile, southern Somalia achieved independence in the same year from Italy under the name of the Republic of Somalia, with Mogadishu as its capital. Given the deep-rooted idea of Greater Somalia, leaders from both southern and northern Somalia agreed on unity to form a single state called the Republic of Somalia, with Mogadishu as its capital, with the intention of later including Djibouti after its independence from French colonial rule. To emphasize the centrality of the Greater Somalia idea, five stars were placed in the official state flag, symbolizing the five regions of Somalia torn apart by colonialism.
However, the dream of unity and the establishment of Greater Somalia quickly faded after Djibouti’s independence and its refusal to unite with Somalia. The Somali government failed to incorporate Somali regions in Ethiopia and northern Kenya. The violent internal policies of President Siad Barre led to internal turmoil, plunging the country into a state of complete chaos that culminated in a civil war that overthrew Siad Barre’s government, lasting more than twenty years during which the state structure collapsed entirely.
Despite the escalation of the Somali war, the leaders of Somaliland quickly managed to establish security and stability in the northern region, forming a local government led by Mohamed Ibrahim Egal, which managed the country and achieved a reasonable level of development. Due to the long civil war and the collapse of the Greater Somalia idea, the leaders of Somaliland decided to revert to the pre-unity phase and declare independence from the Republic of Somalia, proclaiming the Republic of Somaliland in 1991. This nascent state has managed to maintain security and stability for its citizens in a troubled region, yet it has not received international recognition to this day.
Geographical and Demographic Advantages
Geographical and demographic factors have played a significant role in advancing the idea of independence for Somaliland. Due to these factors, it seems that international recognition of this republic is now closer than ever.
The region has managed to prevent the chaos of the Somali civil war from spilling over into its territory, primarily due to its demographics, as the majority of the population belongs to the Isaaq clan. This ethnic cohesion has contributed to the stability of the state. In contrast, the Republic of Somalia has been engulfed in conflict due to ethnic and clan rivalries, as evidenced by the fact that most proposed solutions to the conflict in the country have involved major clans such as Hawiye, Darod, and others.
Thus, demographics have contributed to the success of the state in establishing security and peace within its national territory and achieving reasonable development. The state has also succeeded in adopting a democratic system that ensures a smooth transition of power.
On the other hand, geography has been a decisive factor in attracting the attention of regional and international powers to this unrecognized region. Somaliland’s strategic position on the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el Mandeb Strait, the entrance to the Red Sea, is a vital international corridor through which 12% of global trade passes and over 40% of trade between Europe and Asia.
This area has become a significant arena for international conflict, as evidenced by the large number of Western and Eastern military fleets converging in this region to combat the growing threat of piracy and other security challenges, which have directly affected the safety of global trade passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal on its way to Europe and the United States. This is practically evident in the direct threats posed by the Houthis to the fleets of major powers, despite the differing balance of power.
Despite the lack of international recognition for the region, many countries have been dealing with it as a matter of fact in trade and investment, particularly in fisheries. Ethiopia has been proactive in formalizing its dealings with Somaliland, establishing a trade office that serves as an embassy in the capital, Hargeisa. The ports of Somaliland have also been a transit point for some commercial ships and fleets transporting goods to and from Somaliland without any objections from any party.
The conflict over Somaliland has intensified significantly in January of last year when Ethiopia announced an agreement it signed with the Somaliland government, under which it leased a piece of land at the port of Berbera to establish an independent port for Ethiopia, overseen by Ethiopian naval forces for half a century, as part of Ethiopia’s declared plan to secure a port directly on the Red Sea.
This decision has sparked strong reactions from regional countries, particularly Somalia and Egypt, and has prompted extensive diplomatic efforts that have led to new alliances, intensifying the regional and international conflict over the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
However, the most significant consequence of the Ethiopian decision is the emergence of a movement in several countries advocating for the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, despite the legal reservations surrounding such a decision. It appears that the United States is strongly supporting this movement.
Why the U.S. Unilateral Recognition?
The escalating international conflict over the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden has prompted American think tanks to explore various ways to enhance U.S. presence and influence in this vital waterway. Numerous opinions have emerged warning that if any hostile international power establishes a foothold on the shores of this strategic region, it could threaten U.S. interests in Bab el-Mandeb and the Arabian Gulf.
A study prepared by former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer and others, published by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, is considered one of the most important writings regarding the relationship between the United States and Somaliland. The conclusion of this significant study, authored by a leading figure in the Republican Party’s Africanist movement, urged the United States to unilaterally recognize the region as an independent state separate from Somalia.
The study provided objective justifications based on previous diplomatic stances taken by the U.S., notably the 2008 decision to unilaterally recognize Kosovo’s independence, despite the lack of international consensus on that issue. It noted that all the justifications presented by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for the unilateral recognition of Kosovo apply equally to Somaliland: U.S. interests, the existence of a government controlling state borders, a low likelihood of reverting to the previous situation, and the potential for establishing a democratic system in the new state.
The study confirmed the existence of a stable government that effectively controls security and borders, implementing a democratic system that stands out compared to neighboring countries. After more than thirty years of separation, there is no prospect of returning to the previous situation of being part of Somalia.
The study primarily focused on the significant benefits the U.S. would gain from its unilateral recognition of Somaliland, particularly regarding enhancing American and allied influence in the Gulf of Aden and Bab el-Mandeb, ensuring the security of the Red Sea, combating piracy, and safeguarding international trade, as well as addressing the growing threat posed by the Houthis and other geopolitical challenges in a region of immense economic, security, and political importance to the U.S.
The study downplayed regional and international reactions, particularly from Somalia and the African Union, suggesting that Somalia could be pacified by offering substantial material incentives and that the African Union should be asked to accept the new state, similar to its previous decision to accept the membership of the Sahrawi Republic.
Strategic Challenges
The study authored by Jendayi Frazer represents the vision of a broad current among the Africanist leaders in President Donald Trump’s administration, including Peter Pham and Bruce Gilley, as well as Republican Congressman Scott Perry, who introduced a bill requesting the U.S. government to unilaterally recognize the independence of the region. Therefore, it seems that the issue of unilateral recognition will be a matter of time, as the new American administration seeks to obtain everything it desires from the regional government.
One reason prompting the U.S. to expedite its unilateral recognition of Somaliland is the British government’s decision to hand over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, which could limit the effectiveness of the U.S. use of the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, a permanent American presence in this vital waterway ensures the U.S. secures an alternative trade route in the face of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In either case, the region will hold significant military and commercial strategic importance for the U.S. and its allies, justifying the decision for unilateral recognition.
Conversely, if unilateral recognition is implemented, it will exacerbate the international conflict over the Red Sea, turning this area into a battleground for various powers vying for the region’s resources. It may also escalate the national resistance movement in Somalia against this undesirable foreign intervention.
Considering the new American administration’s inclination to annex Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, and to displace the residents of Gaza, this signals the end of the old world based on sovereignty and the sanctity of borders, ushering in a new world closer to the law of the jungle, governed by power and oppression. In such a scenario, there will be no place for the weak, and the world will not be a safe place at all.
Somaliland, located in the northern part of Somalia, has a complex history shaped by colonial divisions and the quest for a unified Somali state. Following independence in 1960, the dream of a Greater Somalia was undermined by internal conflicts and the civil war that erupted in the late 20th century. Amidst this turmoil, Somaliland declared independence in 1991, establishing a stable government while remaining unrecognized internationally.
