By Imane Hamdi
Africa-Press. The political and security unrest in Libya is no longer an internal issue isolated from Tunisia’s economy, particularly in the southern regions that have been linked for decades through a vast network of trade exchanges and the movement of people, goods, and capital with Libya. As tensions rise around financial institutions and oil and energy facilities in western Libya, concerns in Tunisia are rekindled about direct repercussions on trade, border crossings, currency flows, and economic activity in border areas.
Recent developments come at a time when Libya’s oil infrastructure is facing repeated attacks, with drones targeting fuel storage facilities in the Zawiya oil complex, and the resignation of the Central Bank of Libya’s Governor, Nagy Issa, due to a crisis in managing the monetary institution. Due to the close ties between the economies of the two countries, the fallout from Libyan crises often reaches Tunisia quickly, manifesting as a decline in both formal and informal trade exchanges, as well as a reduction in the flow of Libyans who provide significant contributions to the services and health sectors.
Libya’s economy is heavily reliant on the hydrocarbons and energy sector, making any disruption in oil production, export, or revenue management capable of swiftly impacting spending, consumption, imports, and currency movement.
The head of the Tunisian Observatory for Human Rights and a researcher specializing in Libyan affairs, Mustafa Abdel Kabir, states that Tunisia’s economy is in the crosshairs of Libyan crises—economically, socially, and energetically—predicting a potential decline in trade exchange indicators between the two countries this year due to difficulties in the flow of goods and people and the effects of the banking crisis on Libyans’ spending ability. Last year, trade exchanges between Tunisia and its southern neighbor saw a revival, resulting in an 11% increase compared to 2024, reaching a value of over 2.8 billion dinars, of which more than 2.4 billion dinars were Tunisian exports to Libya.
Abdel Kabir emphasizes that Tunisia’s economy is closely linked to the economies of neighboring countries, especially Libya, which represents an important outlet for Tunisian goods and a labor market, in addition to the energy supply that reaches Tunisia in the form of gasoline or electricity supplies, considering that targeting the Zawiya refinery will have immediate effects on energy exchange with Tunisia.
The speaker noted that the Libyan economy does not only depend on the ability of Tunisian companies to export but also on the ability of Libyan importers to obtain currency and finance purchases, as well as on the banks’ ability to execute transfers and the stability of border crossings and roads. He considered that the most sensitive scenario for Tunisian companies is the transition of the crisis from the political sphere to payment and financial settlement channels, indicating that any double blow affecting oil and the Central Bank of Libya could have repercussions that extend beyond the Libyan market, as oil provides the hard currency that finances a significant portion of imports and consumption, while the central bank is a key link in managing liquidity, foreign currency, and government financing.
According to Abdel Kabir, official trade exchanges between the two countries require a stable banking system that allows Libyan importers to transfer the value of goods to Tunisian exporters, pointing out that any disruption in the Central Bank of Libya, or in the management of foreign currency, or in commercial banks, could lead to delayed payments, increased transfer costs, or push companies to seek alternative channels. Although it is difficult to accurately measure informal trade between Tunisia and Libya, this activity represents a significant share of Tunisia’s total imports and is one of the factors of social stability in the border provinces on both sides.
The importance of this trade lies in the fact that it is not limited to smugglers or large traders but extends to a wide network of transport, storage, sales, services, cafes, restaurants, markets, workshops, and activities related to the movement of travelers.
Researcher Mustafa Abdel Kabir states that border trade provides direct and indirect income for a wide range of the population, considering that a decline in the flow of crossings or border closures quickly transmits the shock to local markets. Local estimates indicate that more than 20,000 families in southern Tunisia are directly or indirectly linked to border trade, whether through transporting goods or selling them or related services. The same estimates confirm that the city of Ben Guerdane relies heavily on commercial activity with Libya, as this sector provides a livelihood for thousands of young people amid limited industrial fabric and high unemployment rates.
Unemployment rates in some southern states exceed 20%, compared to a national average of around 15%, making any disruption in trade movement quickly reflected in social and economic conditions. Workers in border trade resemble day laborers, relying on daily trips to bring goods, whether by vehicles or on foot from the neighboring Libyan areas. In addition to formal and informal trade exchanges, Tunisia’s service sectors benefit from the influx of Libyan tourists who come in large numbers, whether for recreational purposes or for medical treatment, as Tunisia represents an important destination for Libyans seeking healthcare services, which has created a financial movement that includes private clinics, transportation, accommodation, restaurants, and services.
Tunisia and Libya discussed in 2025 mechanisms to improve the care of Libyan patients, including a unified platform for patient follow-up and the establishment of a unified window in clinics and hospitals. However, any decline in Libyan purchasing power or disruption in banking transfers could subsequently affect these services, especially since part of Libyan spending in Tunisia related to treatment goes through social transfers disbursed by the Libyan government for the benefit of its citizens.
