Atta Al-Mannan Bakhit, a former Sudanese diplomat and researcher in African affairs
Paul Biya’s controversial victory in the October elections has ignited a fierce power struggle in Cameroon. Despite hopes for change, the aging president’s win highlights the deep-rooted issues within the political landscape, including a fragmented opposition and a lack of genuine democratic practices. As tensions rise, the future of governance in Cameroon remains uncertain.
A controversial victory was achieved by one of the world’s longest-serving leaders in the elections held on October 12. If things go as his supporters hope, by the end of this eighth term, he will complete a century of life and fifty years in office. This is President Paul Biya, who has been the President of Cameroon since 1982.
There was a dream, a glimmer of hope that the recently concluded elections would be different from previous ones, as opposition leaders wagered that the president, who has surpassed 92 years of age, might tire of politics if not of life itself and decide not to run for an eighth term, a scenario referred to as the honorable exit option.
The opposition also relied on significant instances of rebellion and defection that had occurred for the first time within the ruling party, where influential political leaders such as Bello Maigari and Issa Tchiroma left the government. Both are prominent political figures who had served as ministers.
Since the ministers who left the government are geographically from the northern part of the country, which has a Muslim majority and produced the first president of Cameroon, Ahmadou Ahidjo, the father of independence, the opposition hoped that the north, along with the English-speaking regions and the youth generation seeking change, would punish the ruling party and its candidate, siding with the opposition.
So, how did the elderly president win despite all this? And how can this victory lead to conflict rather than reconciliation among comrades?
A Fragile Democratic Practice
There has never been a true democratic practice in the history of politics in Cameroon, unlike in Senegal or even in neighboring Nigeria, where competitors rely on the ballot boxes and accept victory and defeat. The country is run with an iron fist and dominated by a single party, the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement.
Several factors have helped President Paul Biya’s regime maintain power and secure the elections in his favor. The most important of these reasons are:
The division and fragmentation of opposition parties, which have failed to agree on a minimum program and present a single candidate to rally behind. Although the opposition agrees on opposing President Biya’s regime and seeks to defeat him, their leaders refuse to come to an agreement to choose a single candidate to face the ruling party’s candidate.
The electoral system, which is based on a single round only, considers the candidate who receives the highest number of votes as the winner, regardless of the total number of votes cast. Due to the opposition’s disagreements and their failure to agree on a single candidate, the ruling party’s candidate was able to secure the highest votes.
The strength and cohesion of the deep state, which practically manages the electoral process. Due to his long tenure in power, President Biya has built a wide network of partners, including traditional leaders, politicians, businessmen, civil society, and public service, all of whom find their interests tied to the existing regime.
The preferential advantage of the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement, as it is the only party dominating power and state resources, as well as various media outlets, which has allowed it to spread across the national territory and mobilize voters willingly or unwillingly.
The exclusion of the main opposition leader, Joseph Kamto, whose candidacy was rejected by the electoral commission. Kamto enjoys significant popular momentum and belongs to one of the largest tribes in the country, providing him with substantial material and human support that is not available to other opposition leaders.
The issue of the president’s health and advancing age has not been effectively marketed by the opposition, as he has surpassed ninety years, raising many questions about his ability to manage the state. This is because the state imposes strict media silence on this issue, and the law prohibits discussing the president’s health and his ability to manage affairs.
On the other hand, the president’s supporters present a convincing African perspective on the issue of age, considering that longevity is a gift from God and that advancing age signifies wisdom and sound judgment. They argue that Cameroon is not an exception in Africa, as there are presidents who have reached advanced ages and remain in power, as seen in Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Uganda, Ivory Coast, and others.
Despite President Biya’s victory in the elections and his continued dominance over absolute power in the country, the regime in Cameroon—especially the ruling party—faces significant challenges, not only in managing the country and addressing its complex problems but also the greater threat and challenge of how to manage the conflicting factions within the same house, each of which aspires to inherit the ailing president.
If the president cannot manage this conflict wisely, the struggle for influence within the ruling system will inevitably lead to the disintegration of the ruling structure.
Significant Challenges
President Biya’s regime faces major internal challenges, the most important of which is the security file with the growing activities of jihadist movements that have destabilized the northern part of the country, where Boko Haram and the Islamic State—West Africa Province—operate vigorously, leading to widespread security fluidity and prompting residents to migrate for fear of their lives, halting economic activity and essential services for the population.
There is also the ongoing state of discontent and rebellion in the English-speaking regions in the northwest and southwest of the country, which have witnessed waves of back-and-forth clashes between security forces and rebels since 2016.
Additionally, there is the problem of economic decline, rising inflation, poor living conditions, declining education and health services, high unemployment, and administrative corruption, all of which can motivate the youth of Generation Z to revolt and rebel. These issues are difficult for an ailing president to provide effective solutions to, especially since President Biya is rarely seen and spends most of his time outside the country, with Geneva considered his quasi-official residence for treatment or recuperation, prompting the opposition to claim that the president is running the country from Geneva.
The North-South Conflict
Politically, President Paul Biya will face a sensitive issue in this term, which is the conflict between the north and south of the country, an old and renewed conflict that is gaining greater momentum this time.
The roots of this conflict date back to the succession of founding president Ahmadou Ahidjo, who is from the Muslim north of Cameroon. When he voluntarily relinquished power in 1982, he chose his prime minister, Paul Biya, to succeed him.
However, relations between them quickly soured when the former president Ahidjo was accused of organizing a coup against President Biya, leading to his exile in Senegal and a significant purge of northerners in the party, army, and government. Meanwhile, President Biya turned to the southern part of the country, where he belongs, opening the doors of governance, the army, and power to southerners.
Hostility persisted until the early 1990s when President Biya, like other Francophone countries, was compelled to open up politically and allow multipartyism. At that time, the president needed allies from the north.
Thus, he allied with the strongest symbols of the north, Bello Maigari and Issa Tchiroma, and this alliance continued until last August when the northern leaders resigned from the government and ran for the presidential elections against President Biya.
This split will reignite the unfortunate rift between the south and north and will have a significant impact on the course of events in the battle for the president’s succession.
The Contenders for Succession
Everyone knows that this is the president’s last term, and due to the advancing age factor, the president’s grip on power is no longer as firm as it once was, which will inevitably create a noticeable power vacuum, with each faction vying to fill this void.
Undoubtedly, whoever occupies the largest space and holds the most important files will be the closest to ascend to power. Thus, the challenge facing the Cameroonian regime is primarily an internal one.
Three groups are competing to succeed President Biya, each with its means and supporters, and each has different priorities and options to achieve its goals. These competing factions cooperated without consultation during the electoral campaign, supported the president’s program, and worked hard to ensure his victory. For them, the president’s victory was a common goal; without it, everyone would lose. Once everyone realized this goal with the announcement of the president’s victory, they dispersed, and each group began to work in its own way to secure the heirs to power.
The first group is the military establishment, which may consider applying the Gabon option, when the army overthrew President Ali Bongo when he insisted on running for another term despite his critical health condition, finding significant popular support for the coup. Or perhaps the army will implement the Tunisian scenario with Bourguiba or Algeria with Bouteflika.
However, this option seems weak because the president has made significant changes in the leadership of the army after announcing his candidacy for an eighth term. On the other hand, the protection of the regime in Cameroon falls on the shoulders of the Republican Guard, which has been trained by the Israeli Mossad for a long time, and its members are chosen primarily based on loyalty. However, this option remains viable if a popular youth revolution erupts, which might tempt the army to repeat the Madagascar experience.
There is also the presidential palace group, led by the First Lady Chantal Biya and the Minister of the Presidency, who is the most powerful minister in the government. This group is closest to the president’s heart and ears. They have been surrounding the president in all his movements. This group has been preparing the president’s eldest son, Franck Biya, to be his successor, although the potential successor is rarely seen in the political arena.
Finally, there is the ruling party group, which enjoys strong support from the party’s grassroots spread across the country and has been very successful in organizing a large electoral campaign for the president, despite the fact that the president appeared in only one electoral rally. This group does not have a specific candidate, but winning its favor and satisfaction is a goal not to be overlooked by anyone seeking to rise to power.
However, all these scenarios could change if a sudden power vacuum occurs due to President Paul Biya’s death or if the losing candidate Issa Tchiroma and the opposition collectively manage to mobilize the streets, as happened recently in Madagascar.
Therefore, perhaps the most rational option for maintaining political stability in the country is for the president to amend the constitution to create the position of vice president, allowing President Biya himself to conduct extensive consultations with influential and competing forces in his party and choose a vice president who would be the expected successor. This decision would postpone the struggle of factions for some time and allow President Biya to spend more time in Geneva for treatment and recuperation.
Thus, President Paul Biya’s victory for an eighth term heralds an increase in political instability in the Republic of Cameroon and places the country before an uncertain future.
Cameroon has a long history of political instability and authoritarian rule, particularly under Paul Biya, who has been in power since 1982. The political landscape has been characterized by a lack of genuine democratic practices, with the ruling party maintaining a tight grip on power.
The recent elections have further exposed the fractures within the opposition and the challenges facing the country as it grapples with internal divisions and calls for reform. The historical context of power struggles between different regions, particularly between the predominantly Muslim north and the Christian south, continues to shape the political dynamics in Cameroon.
