Africa-Press. The American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that the current Ebola outbreak in Africa could develop into one of the largest waves of the disease in the continent’s history if strong and widespread public health interventions are not implemented in the near future.
The agency stated that models prepared by its experts indicate that the current outbreak could approach the scale of the West Africa outbreak between 2014 and 2016, which resulted in over 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths.
Jason Asher, director of the Forecasting and Outbreak Analysis Center at the American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, explained that this scenario remains a possibility if current intervention levels do not improve significantly.
He stated during a press conference, “This level of outbreak is possible,” emphasizing that the models used are not definitive predictions but tools to support planning and decision-making.
He added, “These models are designed to support preventive measures and rapid response, not to incite panic.”
According to the agency’s weekly report on diseases and deaths, the estimates are based on four different scenarios ranging from low levels of case detection, isolation, and treatment to extremely high levels.
The American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted that if isolation and treatment rates continue at their currently low levels, estimated at only about 20% of cases, there is a 65% likelihood that the number of infections will exceed 20,000 cases in the next three months.
The agency confirmed that this scenario could be avoided if a larger number of patients are identified early, isolated, and provided with necessary medical care, thereby limiting the transmission of the virus within local communities.
Satish Pillai, the official responsible for managing the agency’s response to the Ebola outbreak, stated that the actual number of infected individuals needing isolation is still not accurately known, but he indicated that current field indicators suggest that isolation rates remain at the lower limits of available estimates.
In this context, the World Health Organization and the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on Friday the launch of a joint response plan worth $518 million over the next six months to address the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and neighboring countries.
The plan aims to enhance early detection capabilities for infections, improve treatment services, support health monitoring systems, and expand screening measures at border crossings to prevent the virus from spreading to other countries.
The two organizations emphasized that containing the outbreak requires broad political and financial commitment, in addition to building trust within local communities towards health response teams.
Health authorities officially announced the outbreak on May 15 in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, but health experts believe that the rare “Bundibugyo” strain of the Ebola virus had been spreading in the area weeks before its discovery.
According to the latest data from the World Health Organization, 381 confirmed cases of the disease have been recorded in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 64 deaths.
The outbreak has affected three provinces, with the primary focus in Ituri Province, which accounts for about 90% of the total confirmed cases and 76% of recorded deaths, according to data from the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The outbreak has also extended to neighboring Uganda, where 16 confirmed cases and one death have been recorded.
In contrast, health authorities announced the recovery of seven patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and two patients in Uganda, amid ongoing efforts to contain the disease and prevent it from escalating into a widespread regional health crisis.
Health experts warn that the speed of case detection, patient isolation, and provision of necessary funding for the response will remain critical factors in determining the course of the outbreak in the coming months.
