Abdul Qadir Muhammad Ali
In July, Ethiopian security forces arrested 82 individuals suspected of ISIS affiliation, highlighting the group’s growing activity in East Africa. Despite significant setbacks in the Middle East, ISIS has shifted its focus to Africa, establishing branches that pose a serious threat to regional stability and international security interests.
In a surprising move, the Ethiopian security and intelligence agency announced in mid-July the arrest of 82 individuals suspected of belonging to ISIS in various regions of the country, shedding light once again on the increasing activity of the group in East Africa.
Although the group’s activity in the African Sahel has become a permanent item on the global security agenda, East Africa hosts active branches of the organization in several countries that have turned into platforms for expansion in the neighborhood, increasing the danger of these activities as a threat to regional stability.
The Shift Towards Africa
The decisive blows that ISIS received in its main strongholds in the Levant and Iraq marked a turning point in its expansion pattern, as its leaders turned their attention to geographical areas far from its primary activity center in the Fertile Crescent.
An assessment published on the website of the International Center for Counter-Terrorism, based in The Hague, indicates that the organization has undergone radical structural and operational changes since 2019, leading it to rely on a dynamic network of regional branches that operate with an unprecedented degree of autonomy, gradually shifting towards a less hierarchical structure and a more decentralized operational model, aimed at enhancing its survival prospects and the resilience of its regional structures.
In this context, the African continent has become one of the main areas of ISIS activity, echoed in the statement of the head of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Brett Holmgren, who warned that “the threat of ISIS in Africa is likely to be one of the largest long-term threats to U.S. interests.”
ISIS in Somalia
Despite the rapid rise of ISIS in the African Sahel, East Africa has also provided a fertile environment for its activities in several countries, most notably Somalia.
An analysis by security and peacebuilding expert Mustafa Hassan highlights that Somalia possesses many attractive factors for the organization’s activities, such as fragile governance, deep-rooted tribal divisions, and its strategic location.
The analysis published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy states that these characteristics make Somalia a prime candidate for ISIS’s expansion agenda, as the country’s instability and its proximity to Yemen and the Red Sea enhance its strategic importance, providing logistical advantages for smuggling networks and maritime operations.
With weak central control and economic difficulties exacerbating local grievances, Somalia represents an ideal environment for recruitment and consolidation.
By exploiting these gaps, ISIS in Somalia is reshaping the region as a primary operational theater, allowing it to integrate itself within local armed factions, provide financial support, and strategic guidance, thus becoming a base for expanding its influence and activities, where it has become one of the organization’s most important arms in East Africa.
In 2015, defectors from the Al-Shabaab movement, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, established ISIS in Somalia, and after declaring their allegiance to the organization that same year, they were recognized in 2018 as a branch of ISIS in Somalia, primarily active in the Bari region of Puntland, benefiting from weak governance structures and the rugged mountainous terrain of the area.
Estimates vary in attempting to quantify its fighters, with the U.S. National Intelligence Director’s office estimating their numbers between 700 and 1,500, while the Soufan Center estimates the figure to be around 1,000 fighters.
The center indicates that ISIS has recently succeeded in expanding its influence and attracting foreign fighters to bolster its manpower.
Among the organization’s key leaders, according to the U.S. National Intelligence Director’s office, are the founder of the branch and head of the administration office, known as Al-Karar, Abd al-Qadir Mu’min, operations leader Abd al-Rahman Fahi Issa, and head of financial affairs Abd al-Wali Muhammad Yusuf, who has been designated a terrorist by the U.S. Treasury Department for his active role in delivering foreign fighters and supplies on behalf of the organization in Somalia.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo
The origins of ISIS trace back to the Allied Democratic Forces, an armed rebel group from Uganda that has taken refuge in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo as a base for its operations. One of the largest factions of this alliance pledged allegiance to the organization in 2017.
Two years later, it received public recognition from ISIS leaders in Syria as an official branch under the name ISIS in the Democratic Republic of Congo, led by Musa Baluku, sometimes referred to as ISIS in Central Africa, while some researchers argue that the latter is an umbrella that includes the former and others.
This group primarily operates in the Kivu and Ituri provinces of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, with its operations extending into neighboring Uganda. The U.S. National Intelligence Director’s office estimates the number of the organization’s fighters to be between 500 and 1,500.
A report from the U.S. State Department indicates that ISIS has attracted fighters from countries such as Burundi, Tanzania, Somalia, and Kenya, while one-third of its members, including senior leaders, are of Ugandan origin, explaining its operational capabilities within Uganda.
In March 2021, the U.S. State Department designated ISIS in the Democratic Republic of Congo as a “foreign terrorist organization” and its leader, Seka Musa Baluku, as a “global terrorist.”
In Mozambique
A lengthy definition published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project describes the emergence of the group now known as ISIS in Mozambique as an armed group in October 2017, locally referred to as “the Sunnah and the Community” for its ideological foundations, and “the Youth Movement” for its extensive use of violence.
The definition adds that despite its rapid growth until 2021, it was one of the most obscure branches of ISIS, which first recognized it as an independent province in May 2022 after it had previously been part of the broader “Central Africa Province” since early 2018.
The origins of this organization trace back to jihadist Salafi networks in East Africa that extended into northern Mozambique as early as 2007.
ISIS in Mozambique seeks to overthrow the government and eliminate foreign influences to establish an “Islamic state governed by Sharia” according to its own perspective, primarily active in Cabo Delgado province in the north of the country, including areas such as Macomia, Mocimboa da Praia, and Palma.
Some estimates suggest that its fighters range between 300 and 1,000, a significant decline from the estimated number of around 2,500 fighters in 2020, a decrease attributed to the fierce attacks directed against it, while the U.S. National Intelligence Director’s office estimates the number to be around 300 fighters.
Recruitment Strategies and Attacks
In recruiting followers, ISIS-affiliated organizations in East Africa employ various strategies, with the Mozambican branch primarily focusing on recruiting disaffected youth among the Mwani and Makwa ethnic groups, exploiting political, economic, and social factors, including feelings of marginalization, religious and ethnic tensions, and poor regional economic conditions.
Meanwhile, an article published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy notes that the organization in Somalia uses concepts such as migration, empowerment, and reinforcements in an intertwined manner, portraying Somalia as a safe migration ground for foreign fighters who represent the reinforcements that will contribute to its consolidation and regional empowerment.
As with the expansion strategies it has followed in other areas, ISIS seeks to build a base of influence by integrating itself into existing rebel movements, exploiting security gaps, and recruiting foreign fighters willing to participate in its ideological mission.
The operational tactics employed by the organization’s branches in East Africa reveal flexibility and adaptability to the local conditions of each.
An Economic Center for the Organization
As ISIS’s presence in its main strongholds in the Middle East diminishes and its distant branches gain increasing importance, the necessity for these sub-organizations to acquire sufficient financial resources to sustain their activities has emerged. In this context, the Somali branch is considered one of the most profitable branches of the organization, according to official U.S. reports.
A report published by the Counterterrorism Center (CTC) estimates that the organization generates millions of dollars annually, and it was able to generate nearly $6 million in 2022, with part of this money allocated to support planning and executing attacks against companies that refuse to pay.
An analysis published by the Soufan Center describes the Somali organization as a vital element in ISIS’s global financial and operational network, effectively serving as a key logistical link in its global network.
Conversely, the Al-Karar office, composed of senior members, oversees the financial, operational, and logistical operations of the organization’s branches in East, Central, and Southern Africa, directing revenues to its other branches on the continent.
In Congo, the organization resorts to imposing taxes on illegal gold mines and traffickers, in addition to operating artisanal mining projects.
A paper issued by the U.S. Treasury Department in February 2024 suggests that ISIS leaders believe that counter-terrorism measures represent relatively less pressure on their income sources in Africa compared to Iraq and Syria, which has led to the organization’s increasing reliance on its branches in Africa for revenue generation, with a notable increase in the use of cryptocurrencies instead of cash as a means to protect its dwindling reserves.
Implications of the Organization’s Activity in East Africa
The security implications are at the forefront of the challenges facing countries and communities in the region as violence escalates and the areas where ISIS elements operate in East Africa increase.
For instance, a report from the U.S. State Department monitoring “terrorism in the Democratic Republic of Congo” indicates that ISIS there has increased its operational footprint by 210% between 2020 and 2022, with the cross-border activities of these organizations emerging as one of the most serious consequences.
In this context, targeting Ethiopia serves as a prime example, where Ethiopian security agencies announced the arrest of cells affiliated with the organization composed of 82 individuals who received training in Puntland, Somalia, and were secretly deployed in various regions of the country, as they participated in providing logistical and financial support, as well as engaging in intelligence activities and recruiting new elements.
At the political level, the activities of ISIS branches contribute to undermining state authorities and exploiting ongoing conflicts and security vacuums to establish footholds and create alternative local authorities, leading to a drain on ISIS’s legitimacy and weakening its relationship with local communities. This not only hinders ongoing state-building efforts from the rubble of fragility but also poses a greater threat to regional stability.
ISIS has undergone significant changes since its defeats in Iraq and Syria, prompting a strategic pivot towards Africa. The continent has become a focal point for the group’s expansion, with leaders recognizing the potential for growth in regions with weak governance and ongoing conflicts. This shift has raised alarms among international security agencies regarding the long-term implications for global security.
The establishment of ISIS affiliates in various African nations, including Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Mozambique, underscores the organization’s adaptability and resilience. These branches exploit local vulnerabilities, such as political instability and economic.
