A recent assessment indicates that the world still has a chance to avoid the worst consequences of climate collapse and return to the 1.5°C target if governments take coordinated action on greenhouse gas emissions.
According to a study published by a local source, national targets are inadequate and require urgent revision, alongside a rapid expansion of renewable energy and electricity use in key sectors, including transportation, heating, and industry.
World leaders are set to meet in Belém, a small city near the mouth of the Amazon River in Brazil, today and tomorrow to discuss the global climate crisis ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference “COP30” scheduled from November 10 to 21.
Temperatures have already exceeded the 1.5°C limit for global warming above pre-industrial levels, as defined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. A report released this week by the United Nations Environment Programme confirmed that current plans published by national governments could lead to a temperature rise of between 2.3°C and 2.5°C.
Experts and climate scientists warn that reaching this level would result in significant increases in extreme weather and devastating damage to critical ecosystems and natural systems worldwide.
Researchers at the Climate Analytics center state that their roadmap could ensure a temperature rise to 1.7°C before 2050, with a potential decrease to 1.5°C by the end of the century through phasing out fossil fuels and utilizing carbon removal technologies to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Dangerous Tipping Points
Scientists recognize the risks of reaching several critical climate tipping points, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the potential transformation of the Amazon rainforest from a carbon sink to a carbon source, and the collapse of coral reefs, which may result from increasing global temperatures.
It remains unclear what temperatures may trigger these tipping points, as every fraction of a degree of warming poses a risk. According to a recent study, a critical tipping point may have already been reached, namely coral bleaching in warm seas and oceans.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, states, “Exceeding 1.5°C is a catastrophic political failure that will exacerbate damage and expose us to tipping points that could have been avoided. However, this roadmap shows that we can still reduce warming well below 1.5°C by 2100.”
He emphasizes, “We must do everything we can to minimize the time spent above this safety threshold to reduce the risks of irreversible climate damage and the destruction that may occur from crossing tipping points.”
At COP30, hosted by Brazil, all countries are expected to submit national climate plans under the 2015 Paris Agreement known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These plans aim to set targets for reducing carbon emissions and the measures needed to achieve them. However, less than half of the countries submitted their NDCs before COP30, and many of those prepared are inadequate.
An analysis by the United Nations Environment Programme concluded that current NDCs could lead to a global temperature rise of about 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels, potentially increasing to 2.8°C, a level that could result in irreversible changes.
According to the United Nations, current NDCs are expected to achieve only a 10% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035. The Climate Analytics center asserts that global emissions must be reduced by about one-fifth by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, and by 11% annually by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.7°C. Additionally, methane emissions must be reduced by 30% by 2035.
Neil Grant, a senior expert at the center, notes that valuable time has been lost in the past five years during this critical decade for climate action. He points out that this period has also seen a revolution in renewable energy sources and batteries, asserting that harnessing these favorable winds can contribute to enhancing humanity’s future in clean energy and compensating for lost time, according to his estimates.
The 2015 Paris Agreement set a global target to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to mitigate climate change impacts. However, recent reports indicate that current national commitments are insufficient, potentially leading to a temperature rise of 2.3°C to 2.5°C. This could result in severe weather events and irreversible damage to ecosystems. The urgency for action has never been greater as world leaders prepare for the upcoming COP30 conference in Brazil, where nations are expected to present updated climate plans.
