Africa-Press. The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Celeste Saulo, stated that the El Niño phenomenon has reached a level that may be the strongest in 40 years, confirming that it will continue until the end of this year and that collaborative action is needed.
Celeste added at a press conference in Geneva that there is a 100% likelihood of an increase in the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to last until February 2027, noting that this is the first time this level of certainty has been expressed.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring approximately every two to seven years and typically lasting between nine and twelve months.
Greater Than Usual Increase
The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization explained that ocean temperatures are higher than usual, with some areas reaching up to eight degrees above normal, indicating that very warm waters will enhance the strength of El Niño, which has intensified and will be stronger than before.
Celeste pointed out that this increase is the largest since monitoring began, and while these records may be broken, she emphasized that this phenomenon does not necessarily lead to disasters and that collective action is needed to ensure that no one faces it alone.
The official noted that this phenomenon has impacted fishermen and supply chains worldwide, and it may affect sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, trade, health, water resources, and transportation.
She highlighted that the data provided by the organization presents a crucial opportunity for preparedness, adding, “We do not have time to waste, especially with the increasing severity of climate change and the intensifying floods.”
Celeste stated that the El Niño indicators for 2026-2027 reflect risks that require greater flexibility in coordination to provide assistance, particularly in Africa, where the African Union calls for a joint response and preparedness for this phenomenon.
She added that Tanzania and countries in Latin America have developed national plans addressing food security, railways, agriculture, and disaster management, noting that these future plans include cash assistance, flood protection measures, and increased funding for rescue efforts, alongside water conservation.
Climate scientists expect that by 2027, global temperatures may reach levels that the world would not have typically encountered for another decade, around 2037.
The effects of warm waters are not confined to the ocean; they alter storm patterns, winds, and atmospheric circulation, transferring additional heat to the atmosphere, which impacts the average temperature of the entire planet and affects the frequency of floods and agricultural production worldwide.
Africa Facing Diverse Risks
The warnings are particularly significant for Africa, where the impacts of El Niño can vary greatly from one region to another. While some parts of the continent may face droughts and extreme heat, other areas may experience heavy rains, floods, and landslides, affecting agriculture, food security, water, energy, health, and infrastructure.
The African Union has already begun to enhance preparedness for the expected strength of the phenomenon during 2026 and 2027. In July, officials warned that the continent is at risk of drought, floods, heatwaves, food production disruptions, water shortages, and increased climate-related diseases.
Estimates from the African Union indicate that the impacts of previous El Niño events during the 2023 and 2024 seasons provided a clear indication of the magnitude of risks. Parts of Southern Africa experienced severe drought, prompting Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe to declare national disasters, while the phenomenon’s repercussions led to declines in agricultural production, disruptions in hydropower generation, and worsening food insecurity. Conversely, parts of East Africa faced devastating floods that displaced communities and damaged infrastructure.
In East Africa, the World Meteorological Organization expects the Greater Horn of Africa to be warmer and wetter than usual during the last quarter of 2026 as El Niño intensifies. The period from October to December is a critical rainy season for parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, as these rains contribute significantly to the annual total precipitation, making any significant change in their pattern directly impactful on agriculture, water, and livelihoods.
The African Union also held an extraordinary meeting of the specialized technical committee in July to discuss the continent’s preparedness for the phenomenon, involving experts and climate institutions, regional centers, and national meteorological agencies, aiming to enhance early warning, coordination, and response before risks escalate.
Early Preparations
The World Meteorological Organization emphasizes that the strength of El Niño does not necessarily mean disasters will occur in all regions, as actual outcomes depend on geographical location and the interaction of the phenomenon with other climatic factors, including the state of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
The organization’s latest forecasts indicate a potential development of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, coinciding with parts of the Atlantic Ocean remaining warmer than average, factors that can enhance, mitigate, or alter the usual impacts of El Niño in some areas.
These forecasts urge governments to utilize early warning systems and seasonal forecasts to take proactive measures, particularly in sectors most vulnerable to climate fluctuations, such as agriculture, water management, energy, transportation, health, and disaster management.
In Africa, the African Union has called for organized and coordinated actions to address the anticipated risks, emphasizing that early preparedness can help protect lives and livelihoods and reduce economic losses. Additionally, African climate institutions have prepared continental forecasts and proactive plans in anticipation of the potential impacts of the phenomenon.
The repercussions of El Niño are not limited to the Pacific Ocean, as unusual water temperatures can alter storm patterns, winds, and atmospheric circulation, affecting the distribution of rainfall and temperatures on a broad scale. Therefore, the World Meteorological Organization and the African Union are treating the developments of 2026 and 2027 as a critical timeframe for enhancing preparedness and early warning, rather than merely a forecast of a transient climatic event.
