Africa-Press. The European Union’s decision to impose a ban on the import of Sudanese gold, alongside mercury and cyanide, has sparked widespread discussion about its potential impact on the economy, particularly as the mining sector increasingly relies on gold as the main source of foreign currency amid ongoing conflict and declining public revenues.
Economic experts believe that the direct impact of the European sanctions will be limited, noting that Sudan does not export gold directly to EU countries. However, the larger issue remains the continued smuggling of gold through intermediary markets and countries, making it extremely difficult to trace the origin of the precious metal.
Economic expert Haitham Fathi stated that the EU’s decision primarily targets gold associated with the government more than that linked to the “Rapid Support Forces,” explaining that the latter heavily relies on smuggling networks, which limits the impact of the decision on them.
He added that gold is one of the most difficult commodities to trace once it leaves the country of origin, as it can be melted down and reshaped in global gold trading centers to acquire internationally recognized specifications before being re-exported to European markets without indicating its original extraction source.
He clarified that the European decision prohibits the import of gold of Sudanese origin, but the mechanisms of global gold trading heavily depend on refining, melting, and re-manufacturing processes, which effectively lead to a loss of the ability to trace the original country of origin, especially if the gold passes through internationally accredited refining centers.
He believes that this unique nature of the gold market makes the implementation of such a decision more complex compared to sanctions imposed on other goods that can be easily traced.
Nonetheless, economic expert Mohamed Al-Nayer considered that the European decision will not have an immediate effect on the government at this stage, given the absence of official gold exports from Sudan to EU countries last year or in the early months of this year.
He stated that data on gold exports for 2025 indicates no recorded exports to the EU, while the value of gold exports during the year reached approximately $1.5 billion, with about 50% going to the United Arab Emirates before the export was halted, while the remaining portion went to Egypt, Oman, and several other markets.
He added that gold exports during the first quarter of 2026, from January to March, exceeded $370 million, with the primary destinations also being Egypt and Oman, without any recorded exports to European markets.
Al-Nayer believes that Sudan has opportunities to expand its exports to other markets such as Turkey, Russia, and China, which primarily import gold to bolster their central bank reserves, rather than for re-exporting to Europe, thereby reducing the expected impact of European sanctions.
He pointed out that recent years have seen increasing competition among major economic powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, to enhance their gold reserves as one of the most important strategic assets amid global economic fluctuations, which opens alternative markets for Sudanese products. He also suggested that the primary aim of the European sanctions may be to limit financial resources linked to the Rapid Support Forces, amid discussions within European institutions in recent times regarding tightening measures against them, considering that the decision may be interpreted more broadly than its political motivations.
He added that Sudan can, if it faces future difficulties in exporting gold, direct part of its production to bolster the reserves of the Central Bank of Sudan, contributing to monetary stability and strengthening the national currency, in addition to the possibility of using gold reserves as collateral for obtaining external financing and loans.
Regarding the ban on exporting mercury and cyanide to Sudan, he clarified that the expected impact will also be limited, as the majority of imports of these materials come from Asian markets rather than the EU. However, he emphasized that developing traditional mining and transforming it into an organized sector will remain the most viable option for the Sudanese economy, both environmentally and economically.
The European Council announced on Monday the adoption of a new package of sanctions related to the war in Sudan, which included a ban on the purchase, import, or transfer of gold of Sudanese origin, in addition to prohibiting the sale, supply, or export of mercury and cyanide to Sudan.
The Council explained that these measures aim to limit sources of funding for the ongoing conflict, noting that gold trade has become one of the most important financial resources relied upon by conflict parties since the outbreak of war in April 2023.
The European sanctions come as part of a broader trend to impose restrictions on economic resources believed to contribute to prolonging the war, following previous sanctions imposed by the EU, the United States, and other Western countries on individuals and entities linked to the war in Sudan.
The decision included a ban on mercury and cyanide as these materials are among the most important inputs used in gold extraction processes, especially in artisanal mining. However, analysts believe that the impact of the ban will remain limited as long as these materials are available through Asian and regional markets outside the EU.
Currently, gold is the most important source of foreign currency in Sudan, after the country lost nearly three-quarters of its oil production following the secession of South Sudan in 2011, which has led successive governments to increasingly rely on the mining sector to compensate for declining revenues.
According to data from the Ministry of Minerals, Sudan recorded the highest level of gold production in 2025 over the past five years, totaling nearly 70 tons, while artisanal mining contributes more than 80% of total production, providing direct and indirect job opportunities for over two million people.
Despite these indicators, the sector faces significant structural challenges, the most prominent of which is the expansion of unregulated mining activities, weak oversight of production, and continued smuggling operations, factors that lead to a clear gap between actual production and officially exported quantities.
International estimates and reports indicate that a large portion of Sudanese gold leaves the country through unofficial channels to neighboring countries or to regional gold trading centers before undergoing melting and refining processes that reclassify it according to international standards, making it difficult to prove its original origin.
In recent years, the United Arab Emirates has emerged as one of the most important centers for gold trade coming from Sudan, before the official export map changed in 2025 following disputes between the two countries and accusations leveled by the Sudanese government against Abu Dhabi of financing and supporting the Rapid Support Forces.
Subsequently, a larger portion of exports shifted to Egypt and Oman, while informal gold trade continues to pose a major challenge for authorities.
Experts believe that the future of the gold sector in Sudan will not only depend on external sanctions but also on the state’s ability to organize artisanal mining, tighten control over production and export chains, and limit smuggling operations, allowing the large production to be converted into official revenues that support the national economy.
Gold is currently the top export commodity in Sudan. Data from the Central Bank of Sudan indicates that the value of official gold exports in 2025 reached approximately $1.54 billion, compared to about $1.57 billion in 2024, despite a decrease in exported quantities from about 22.9 tons to approximately 14.7 tons, reflecting the record rise in global gold prices last year.
During the first quarter of 2026, the value of exports reached approximately $370.7 million, according to statistics from the Central Bank of Sudan, with minerals, led by gold, remaining the largest contributor to export revenues.
