Africa-Press. In a notable political and legal move, the Eritrean Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a document titled “Sovereignty in the Face of Ambition for Domination: The Ethiopian Expansionist Pursuit of a Maritime Outlet” on Wednesday, elevating Asmara’s stance to a level of “political advocacy” against statements made by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed regarding the Red Sea.
According to the text of the document published on a local source, Addis Ababa presents itself as having a “sovereign access to the sea as an existential goal that is irreversible,” which Asmara describes as “a flawed logic that justifies regional expansion at the expense of its neighbors.”
The Eritrean advocacy revolves around three pillars:
The first is that “landlocked countries in the world – from Botswana to Switzerland and Kazakhstan – secure their trade through standard agreements with coastal countries,” and that Eritrea has opened its ports for Ethiopian trade “on generous terms” since its independence in 1993.
The second is that Abiy Ahmed’s conflation of “commercial access” and “territorial ownership” represents “a blatant violation of international law, and of the African Union’s principle regarding the stability of colonial-era borders,” according to the document.
The third pillar is purely legal: a landlocked country, according to international law, is not permitted to deploy military assets in the territorial waters of its neighbor without an agreement with the host state, while maritime security remains “the prerogative of coastal states.”
The document also carries a sarcastic tone, borrowing a Tigrinya proverb that states, “the butterfly unable to cover itself seeks to cover the ground,” referring to Ethiopia’s claim that it can secure the international shipping lane while it struggles to control its internal borders in the Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions.
Irrevocable Referendum
Asmara refers in its advocacy to what it describes as “the established reality of the existence of the Eritrean state,” implicitly referencing the May 1993 referendum that was conducted under international auspices and led to independence. Observers believe that invoking this legitimacy now aims to place any discussion regarding the port of Assab outside the realm of “sovereign negotiation.” The document considers that “the hostile Ethiopian rhetoric and recent military maneuvers, including the memorandum of understanding with Somaliland in 2024, are serious provocations that could ignite regional chaos.”
Conversely, the Ethiopian Prime Minister presents the doctrine of “dual waters” that links his country’s sovereignty over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (which became operational in September 2025) with access to the Red Sea. The Ethiopian Horn Review summarized it as an approach that makes the maritime outlet a remedy for the “geographical prison” imposed on 132 million Ethiopians since Eritrea’s separation.
The Eritrean advocacy cannot be read in isolation from the reshaping of alliances in the Horn of Africa. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi hosted Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki for a five-day working visit (October 30 – November 4, 2025), which focused – according to a local source – on Red Sea security, the Sudanese file, and support for Somalia.
Subsequent reports, relayed by the Horn Review, indicated arrangements to enhance facilities at the Eritrean port of Assab and the Djibouti port of Doraleh for the benefit of Egyptian naval vessels and forces, extending from a trilateral Egyptian-Eritrean-Somali summit held in Cairo in 2024.
On the other hand, Ethiopia relies on a strategic partnership with the UAE, while Asmara, according to Afwerki’s statements to a local source on November 12, 2025, considers that “any foreign military base” in the Red Sea basin is “illegal and unacceptable,” proposing a vision consisting of 12 points for managing the security of the corridor in the hands of its coastal states.
The Specter of a New War in the Horn of Africa
Tensions between the two neighbors resurfaced in September 2025 when Abiy Ahmed described the loss of the maritime outlet as “a mistake that must be corrected,” while Ethiopia accused Asmara – in a message from its Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos to the UN Secretary-General on October 2, 2025 – of “preparing to wage war” and supporting factions of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, according to a local source. In turn, Afwerki accused Addis Ababa of “childish provocation.”
With forces from both countries amassing at the border, the Bloomsbury Institute for Intelligence and Security warned in January 2026 that any spark could plunge the Horn of Africa back into the cycle of war from 1998-2000, which resulted in around 100,000 casualties.
While international and regional powers push for mediation, the biggest question remains: Will Asmara’s legal advocacy be sufficient to deter Addis Ababa’s ambitions? Or will the port of Assab – or any other port – become the next flashpoint for war in the region?
