What You Need to Know
The Pretoria Agreement, signed on November 2, 2022, is pivotal in Ethiopia’s political landscape, aiming to end a devastating conflict that has claimed up to 800,000 lives. As tensions rise and accusations of violations emerge, the future of this agreement is uncertain, raising concerns about Ethiopia’s stability and humanitarian situation.
Africa. Since its signing on November 2, 2022, the Pretoria Agreement has occupied a central place in Ethiopia’s domestic political dynamics. It represented a crossing toward peace from the swamp of war, which the Spanish newspaper El País described as “among the most violent conflicts in the world in this century,” based on shocking death tolls estimated at up to 800,000 between 2020 and 2022.
Amid the various tensions overshadowing the political scene in Abyssinia and the mutual accusations of violating the agreement’s provisions, questions grow more urgent about the fate of this document and what its collapse might mean for Ethiopia, which stands at a historic crossroads.
How was the agreement reached?
The path to the agreement was shaped by several factors that forced both sides into negotiations they had long avoided. A report by the International Crisis Group notes that the third round of war, which began in summer 2022, led within two months to more than 100,000 deaths from all sides. The deep penetration of Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara forces into Tigray’s lines pushed the Tigrayans to accept negotiations and make “painful concessions,” according to Getachew Reda, spokesperson for the Tigray government and a member of the Pretoria negotiating delegation.
The worsening humanitarian crisis in the region due to the Ethiopian government’s blockade policies was another pressing factor. By August 2022, the World Food Programme announced that nearly half of Tigray’s population needed food aid. Reda stated, “Our survival as a people is at stake. If the peace agreement guarantees our survival, why not try it?”
On the other side, the Ethiopian government was under severe economic pressure from the devastating war. A paper by Chatham House described the war’s impact on the economy as “destructive and severe,” noting that redirecting resources to the war effort drained government finances, undermining attempts to manage the debt crisis and respond to shocks such as COVID-19, desert locust swarms, and severe drought.
External pressure, especially from the United States, also played a decisive role. The same paper highlighted that the agreement followed intensive negotiations facilitated mainly by African Union and U.S. officials, with Washington exerting “strong” pressure linked to the war’s costs and limited access to loans and aid.
Main provisions of the Pretoria Agreement
Pretoria, South Africa’s administrative capital, hosted the negotiations and signing of the “Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement between the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front” on November 2, 2022.
The agreement, effective the next day, aimed to end two years of devastating war in Ethiopia, resume humanitarian aid, and restore essential services in Tigray. It contained 12 articles covering security, political, and humanitarian commitments. Tigray explicitly recognized Ethiopia’s federal constitution and government authority, agreed to disarm and demobilize its forces, and reintegrate them into federal defense and security structures.
To ensure implementation, the agreement established a joint committee chaired by the African Union, including representatives from both sides and IGAD. On the humanitarian front, the federal government pledged to accelerate the provision of essential services and aid, while the agreement called for a national policy of accountability and transitional justice, given the widespread atrocities committed by all parties during the war.
Politically, the agreement lifted the TPLF’s terrorist designation, enabling its participation in national decision-making processes and inclusive dialogue, and recognized its role in governing the region.
Winners and losers
Many studies describe the agreement as a victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. A paper by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs argued that it allowed Addis Ababa to reassert control over Tigray, easing military and economic burdens and strengthening Abiy’s authority as a victorious leader, while reducing reliance on Eritrea.
Conversely, Ethiopian researcher Assefa Gebru (August 2024) considered the TPLF a loser, having lost military and political control, accepted disarmament, and faced internal leadership crises that weakened its position. Eritrea and Amhara militias, allies of the government during the war, were also seen as losers, as the agreement demanded their withdrawal from Tigray territories, leaving them dissatisfied and in conflict with Addis Ababa.
Implementation: successes and failures
Over the past three years, notable progress has been made: cessation of hostilities has largely held, services and aid resumed partially, Tigray began disarmament, and its terrorist label was lifted.
Yet serious challenges remain: Eritrean and Amhara forces have not fully withdrawn, disputes over Western Tigray and Raya persist, and transitional justice has stalled. The disarmament of Tigray’s forces was conditional on full withdrawal of non-federal troops and proper reintegration programs—conditions unmet.
The return of nearly one million displaced persons remains unresolved, fueling tensions. The TPLF insists Pretoria guarantees its legal status as a political party, while Ethiopia’s electoral commission revoked its registration in May 2025, sparking disputes.
Mutual accusations of violations have escalated. Abiy Ahmed told parliament on October 28 that the TPLF undermines peace by diverting funds to armament and engaging in unauthorized foreign relations. On November 7, the TPLF accused the federal government of drone strikes violating the agreement and appealed to the UN and AU for pressure.
Regionally, Ethiopia accused Eritrea and hardline Tigrayan factions of preparing for war and destabilizing Amhara, claims denied by the TPLF.
Future of the agreement
With trust eroding, the Pretoria Agreement faces collapse. Analysts warn that failure would plunge Ethiopia into a national crisis, derail recovery, deepen humanitarian suffering, and fragment the country further. Economically, investor confidence would deteriorate, reconstruction halt, exports and industrial investment decline, and debt worsen.
International relations expert Grace Musolo argues that preventive diplomacy is the best option, through joint AU–UN mediation, strict monitoring of disarmament and reintegration, inclusive representation of TPLF, civil society, and regional stakeholders, and strengthening governance and transitional justice. Such measures could transform fragile accords into sustainable peace frameworks and foster reconciliation.
The Pretoria Agreement was a significant step toward peace in Ethiopia, following years of conflict that escalated dramatically in 2022. The war, described as one of the most violent in recent history, prompted urgent negotiations as both sides faced immense pressure from humanitarian crises and economic collapse. The agreement aimed to halt hostilities and address the dire needs of the affected populations.
The conflict’s roots lie in deep-seated political and ethnic tensions, exacerbated by military confrontations and blockades that have devastated regions like Tigray. The international community has closely monitored the situation, recognizing the agreement’s potential to reshape the war.
Source: Al Jazeera
