Isidore Kouwonou
Africa. Guinea-Bissau is witnessing an active electoral campaign ahead of its upcoming general elections—presidential and legislative—scheduled for November 23, where 12 candidates are competing for the trust of over 860,000 voters in a highly significant political contest.
These elections carry particular weight in this West African nation, a former Portuguese colony that continues to grapple with deep political tensions and a crisis of confidence between the ruling government and the opposition, in a country with a long history of coups and military interventions that have fueled chronic instability.
Incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló is seeking re-election and faces a key challenge from his predecessor José Mário Vaz, in the absence of a strong opposition figure such as Domingos Simões Pereira, who recently returned from exile but was disqualified by the Supreme Court. Pereira, leader of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC)—the historic movement that led the country to independence—had maintained a parliamentary majority until Embaló dissolved the National People’s Assembly in December 2023.
The campaign unfolds amid heightened political unrest, particularly following the arrest of several senior army officers accused of involvement in an attempted coup. Reports from UN agencies, including the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, have described Guinea-Bissau as a key transit hub for international drug trafficking networks, linking some coup attempts to these illicit activities.
Guinea-Bissau’s Efforts Toward Political Stability and Institutional Strengthening
Since President Embaló dissolved the National People’s Assembly in December 2023—following a coup attempt on November 30 of the same year—the country has experienced a legislative vacuum, with no elected representatives, after parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2024 were postponed.
Despite the ongoing uncertainty, the Presidency and the National Electoral Commission (CNE) have reaffirmed that the elections will take place on November 23, 2025, as planned, in hopes of restoring political stability and rebuilding effective state institutions.
According to Dr. Yves Ekoué Amaïzo, Director of the Center for African Studies in Vienna, “respecting the results of the ballot box is a fundamental prerequisite for achieving lasting stability.” He cautions that deviation from constitutional principles and peaceful power transfer only perpetuates instability, questioning:
“Will the will of the voters truly be respected, or will anyone daring to challenge the incumbent president be excluded through judicial means?”
Amaïzo warns that undermining political pluralism by excluding key candidates or restricting competition risks stripping the electoral process of legitimacy and reigniting coup scenarios, especially amid rising tensions as the campaign begins.
The Battle Against Drug Trafficking: Another Critical Front
According to the United Nations, Guinea-Bissau has long served as one of the main transit routes for cocaine smuggled from Latin America to Europe via Africa. The country was even labeled a “narco-state” under President Malam Bacai Sanhá (2009–2012).
In September 2024, authorities intercepted a 2.6-ton shipment of cocaine aboard a private plane at Bissau airport, accompanied by five Latin American nationals.
Since assuming office in 2020, President Embaló has claimed significant progress in curbing drug trafficking networks, stating during his 2021 visit to France that “drug trafficking in Guinea-Bissau is a thing of the past,” citing new security strategies implemented by his government.
However, UN reports continue to allege the involvement of figures close to the regime in these illicit activities.
Amid ongoing instability, the Presidency announced that two coup attempts had been thwarted—one in November 2023, which led to the parliament’s dissolution, and another in early November 2025, coinciding with the launch of the election campaign.
Historically, no president has completed a full term, except José Mário Vaz, elected in 2014. The rest were ousted by coups or died in office—the last being Malam Bacai Sanhá, who passed away in 2012.
President Embaló has accused drug trafficking networks of seeking to undermine his rule due to his strict anti-trafficking and anti-corruption measures, stating: “They wanted to assassinate me—and my entire government.”
Dr. Amaïzo, head of the Afrocentricity Research Center, believes that the recurring coup attempts reflect structural political fragility and weak governance, exacerbated by corruption and criminal networks.
He cautions that rising drug seizures alone do not prove a real decline in trafficking, asking: “Are traffickers truly facing obstacles in moving their shipments through the country?”
Amaïzo adds that some arrests might be symbolic gestures to polish the government’s image internationally, rather than genuine crackdowns. He insists that any incoming president must take decisive action against smuggling networks, even if it means prosecuting close allies, as this is key to achieving stability, fair wealth distribution, and sustainable development.
Strengthening the Economy and Reducing Poverty
Guinea-Bissau is the third-largest producer of cashew nuts in West Africa, after Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria. The country planned to export 200,000 tons at the start of the 2025 season, and by mid-season had already reached 208,833 tons, according to Lassana Faty, Director of Foreign Trade. The African Cashew Alliance projects total output at 260,000 tons, an 18.1% increase from last year.
Cashew nuts remain the main export commodity and a vital source of national income, driving significant economic growth. According to the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), raw material exports generated 132.8 billion CFA francs ($219 million) in 2023—representing 93% of total export revenues.
Despite an average economic growth rate of 4.8–5% over the past five years, more than 64% of Guinea-Bissau’s population lives below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
Dr. Amaïzo stresses that the unequal distribution of wealth remains the central challenge:
“There can be no political stability without social justice. Persistent inequality breeds unrest and coups.”
He warns that worsening poverty could push marginalized groups to rebel, potentially triggering military-backed uprisings and further instability.
The next president, he argues, must combat corruption and poor governance decisively, as they are the main obstacles to progress and the root causes of the country’s fragility.
A Regional Pillar of Stability
Despite its internal struggles, Guinea-Bissau plays a key diplomatic role in West African peace efforts, particularly in resolving the Casamance conflict in southern Senegal.
Mediation led by President Embaló resulted in a peace agreement signed on February 25, 2025, between the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) and the Senegalese government, represented by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko—a major step toward regional stability.
Dr. Yves Ekoué Amaïzo notes that the stability of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau is interdependent, and neither country can afford to destabilize the other.
He emphasizes that Guinea-Bissau must pursue the resolution of the Casamance issue to prevent further pressure from refugee inflows and to seize the political opportunity in Senegal to strengthen peace efforts.
Finally, he concludes that after the upcoming elections, Guinea-Bissau must consolidate internal stability to enhance its regional influence within ECOWAS, provided it achieves a minimum level of political cohesion after the vote.
Source: BBC
