What You Need to Know
Guinea-Bissau is holding presidential and legislative elections amid heightened political tension. Current President Omaro Sissoco Embalo is seeking a second term, facing strong competition from opposition candidate Fernando Dias and others. Approximately one million registered voters are participating in this critical election, which analysts predict could lead to a runoff if no candidate secures.
Africa. Guinea-Bissau has commenced presidential and legislative elections amid a tense political atmosphere and sharp polarization. Current President Omaro Sissoco Embalo is seeking a second term while facing strong competition from opposition candidate Fernando Dias and other contenders.
Approximately one million registered voters are participating, representing nearly half of the country’s population of about 2.25 million.
President Embalo is up against 11 other candidates, with the notable newcomer Fernando Dias receiving support from the leader of the Guinea Independence Party and the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, who led the struggle for independence from Portugal in the 1960s and 1970s.
For the first time, the party has been barred from presenting its candidates in the presidential and legislative elections after authorities claimed it submitted its papers late.
Analysts expect a close race between Embalo and Dias, with a second round of voting likely if no candidate secures more than 50% of the votes.
Voter sentiment appears deeply divided, as evidenced by recent rallies on Friday.
A Highly Polarized Politics
The small nation located on the coast between Senegal and Guinea has witnessed at least nine coups or coup attempts before Embalo took office.
Embalo claims to have survived three additional assassination attempts since then, although his opponents accuse him of fabricating crises to justify repressive campaigns, allegations he denies.
The president has pledged to achieve stability, build more roads, and expand access to water if granted a second term.
In contrast, Dias has promised to improve essential services and stated he would promote reconciliation while keeping the military out of politics. He has also accused Embalo of planning to undermine Guinea-Bissau’s institutions to strengthen presidential powers if re-elected.
Throughout the year, questions about Embalo’s legitimacy have persisted, as his opponents argue that his term ended last February.
Lucia de Lugo, director of the Observatory of Illicit Economies in West Africa, stated that “the current electoral climate is extremely tense, with a highly polarized political scene.”
She added that “the opposition has significant and long-standing public support, but their campaign efforts have been severely restricted, and there is no level playing field as we approach the elections.”
The observatory is part of a global initiative to combat transnational organized crime, which has tracked Guinea-Bissau’s status as a major transit point for cocaine coming from South America to Europe.
Saiko Kandi, a tailor, stated, “I will vote for Omaro Sissoco Embalo to lead the fight against corruption and drug trafficking.”
He added that “Embalo will also find a solution to the security crisis, the food crisis, and, of course, the political crisis that has long engulfed Guinea-Bissau.”
Meanwhile, Berta da Guía, a businesswoman, expressed concern over Embalo’s decision to dissolve parliament after his government claimed there was an attempted coup in late 2023.
She stated, “I support Fernando Dias,” noting that she expects him to receive strong backing from the Balanta ethnic group, the largest in the country, which has traditionally supported the Social Renewal Party.
Guinea-Bissau has a tumultuous political history, marked by numerous coups and attempts since its independence from Portugal in the 1970s. The country has experienced at least nine coups or coup attempts, contributing to a fragile political landscape. President Embalo claims to have survived three assassination attempts since taking office, while his opponents accuse him of creating crises to justify repression.
The current electoral climate is described as extremely tense, with a highly polarized political scene. Opposition parties have significant public support but face severe restrictions on their campaign efforts.
