What You Need to Know
With 16 months until Nigeria’s next general elections, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made significant political arrangements. However, security issues, particularly jihadist attacks and kidnappings, have undermined public confidence and drawn sharp external criticism. Tinubu’s acknowledgment of the security crisis highlights the pressure he faces as he prepares for the 2027 elections.
Africa. With 16 months remaining until the upcoming general elections in Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made significant political arrangements; he has scattered his opponents, won over some, encouraged defections, and tightened his grip on the ruling All Progressives Congress party.
On paper, his chances for re-election in 2027 appear strong, but on the ground, they seem far less certain, according to Africa Report.
Security, which Tinubu previously wielded as a weapon against his predecessors, has now become his central weakness. According to the report, jihadist attacks and mass kidnappings in the northwest and north-central have shaken public confidence and drawn sharp external criticism, while politics has taken a backseat as the presidency struggles to contain a security crisis that strikes at the heart of the president’s authority.
On November 22, Tinubu publicly acknowledged that the security crisis “is what worries him the most,” a rare admission from a president who has built his political image on strict efficiency.
Africa Report noted that this statement reflects the pressures facing the president after a shocking week that saw the kidnapping of over 300 students and deadly attacks on churches and villages.
The report also indicated that the federal government has closed dozens of schools due to fears of imminent attacks and postponed the national arts and culture festival, while some communities have relied on local defense committees to fend off attacks, highlighting the state’s fragility in the face of armed group expansion.
Furthermore, Africa Report stated that the security crisis coincided with increasing pressure from the United States, where President Donald Trump described the situation as “genocide against Christians,” opening the door to sanctions or unilateral intervention, exacerbating the challenges facing Tinubu.
Although the president has reshuffled security leadership and supported the establishment of local police at the state level, the reforms remain superficial, as vast areas remain unsafe, and the strategy to combat banditry lacks coherence, according to the report.
Politicians and activists have recalled Tinubu’s past statements calling for the resignation of President Jonathan due to security failures, arguing that he should be held to the same standard today.
According to Africa Report, this debate reflects the widening circle of criticism that has reached religious leaders and public figures.
In contrast, Tinubu’s supporters attribute part of the responsibility to Trump’s threats of military intervention, claiming that internal and external opponents are pressuring the government under the guise of terrorism.
However, according to Africa Report, there is no public evidence that the current wave of kidnappings and attacks is politically coordinated, while independent research points to a more complex picture: overlapping jihadist cells, criminal gangs, local complicity, and a security sector weakened by corruption.
The report warns that framing the crisis as a religious war exacerbates the risks, as data shows that most victims of jihadist violence in the northeast are Muslims, while bandit attacks target those who refuse to pay ransoms regardless of their religion.
In conclusion, Africa Report asserts that each new massacre or kidnapping undermines Tinubu’s promise of “renewed hope” and fuels demands for a complete restructuring of the security system.
If he fails to convince Nigerians, especially in the north, that security and daily living conditions are improving, the 2027 elections could turn into a referendum on his failure to stop the killings, rather than on his political skills.
Nigeria has faced a myriad of security challenges over the years, particularly in the northern regions where jihadist groups and banditry have surged. The government has struggled to maintain order, leading to widespread public discontent and calls for reform. As the 2027 elections approach, these security issues are becoming increasingly central to political discourse, impacting the prospects of current leadership.
The political landscape in Nigeria is complex, with various factions and interests at play. President Tinubu’s administration has attempted to address these challenges through reforms and local policing initiatives. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains in doubt,,
